EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
In the early stages of April, the technical foundation has price rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, April’s candle is currently nearly 1% lower, testing the upper boundary of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend remains in motion, trading lower since 2008 and exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Europe’s single currency chalked up a relatively spirited recovery vs. the greenback Thursday, buoyed on the back of a 78.6%/61.8% Fib retracement zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink).
North of the noted Fib base, the 200-day SMA at 1.1062 offers a layer of resistance, while a breakout north of here shines the flashlight on supply at 1.1239/1.1179, along with trendline resistance (1.0879).
H4 timeframe:
Thursday’s advance north of support at 1.0831 came about as the US dollar index folded over and reclaimed 100.00 to the downside, weighed by miserable US unemployment claims data and further easing from the Fed.
The Federal Reserve took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy. This funding will assist households and employers of all sizes and bolster the ability of state and local governments to deliver critical services during the coronavirus pandemic[1].
The move higher eclipsed Tuesday’s high at 1.0925 and is poised to reconnect with supply at 1.1044/1.0966, which comes with a nearby 50.00% retracement value at 1.0954 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0973.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday flow mid-way through London on Thursday toppled the 1.09 region in strong fashion, clearing the path north for price to address 1.0950 into US hours. The reaction off 1.0950 has so far been reasonably modest, echoing the possibility of a resumption to the upside today, targeting a somewhat large supply at 1.1033/1.0982 which houses the widely watched 1.10 level and channel resistance (1.0925).
Technicians will also note the RSI momentum indicator recently faded overbought territory and produced bearish divergence.
Structures of Interest:
Coming from monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912, alongside buyers latching onto a strong bid from 1.0745/1.0830 on the daily timeframe, an intraday push through 1.0950 could be seen on the H1 timeframe today. However, breakout buyers may encounter fresh selling off the 50.00% retracement value at 1.0954 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0973 on the H4 timeframe, which envelope the lower boundary of a supply base at 1.1044.
Ultimately, technical studies could see 1.10 brought into view on a breakout above 1.0950, though may struggle to pencil in much thereafter.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move reclaimed more than 60% of the month’s losses, drawing the pair to within reasonably close proximity of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
April currently trades more than 3% in the green. With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
In parallel with the RSI indicator toppling its 50.00 value, AUD/USD registered its fourth successive daily gain Thursday. Notably, price action tapped the upper boundary of a demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, shifting focus to a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6398. this is closely followed by a 61.8% Fib retracement at 0.6449 and trendline resistance (0.7031).
H4 timeframe:
The H4 timeframe is a somewhat busy chart at the moment, emphasising strong resistance between 0.6433/0.6338.
Converging with this area we have a harmonic Gartley formation, with a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib retracement level from 0.6433. In addition, a local ABCD approach can be seen (orange) terminating at around a 161.8% Fib ext. level drawn from 0.6338. Also of note is a 161.8% Fib ext. level coming in at 0.6420.
H1 timeframe:
Lifted by a decline in the USD, Thursday concluded testing a channel resistance (0.6207), which intersects with a supply zone at 0.6362/0.6329 and is confirmed by the RSI indicator crossing paths with overbought terrain. Downside from this angle has 0.63 to contend with, as well as demand formed from 0.6216/0.6246 should we pop lower.
Structures of Interest:
Although daily price is seen feasting on the upper boundary of a demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, threatening higher moves, H4 and H1 action bring reasonably stacked resistance to the table. Therefore, a dip lower could still be in store, with sellers eyeing H1 demand at 0.6216/0.6246.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The 200-day SMA value, currently mixing around the 108.33ish region, nudged into the limelight on Thursday following a modest sell-off. USD/JPY trekked lower in lockstep with the US dollar index, following weekly unemployment claims reaching 6.61m from a revised up 6.87m, topping the consensus of 5m.
Skies are relatively clear to the upside in terms of resistance until nearing the 111.30 region, along with familiar supply at 112.64/112.10. Yet, a break to the downside, potentially charts the way to demand coming in from 105.70/106.66.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 109.71/109.20, coupled with a 50% retracement level at 109.30, stepped up to the plate in recent trading and capped upside attempts. Thursday observed the candles tunnel through local support from 108.53 and a trendline support (101.18). Both structures now represent resistance.
If price remains on the defensive today, technical elements reveal a push to familiar demand at 106.75/107.22 could be in store.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday action on the H1 timeframe shows buyers took a back seat heading into US trade on Thursday, chiselling through 108.50 and scoring session lows of 108.20, just ahead of channel support (108.67).
As of current trade, a retest motion at the underside of 108.50 is unfolding, potentially prepping the ground for a move to 108 and the aforementioned channel support.
Structures of Interest:
The combination of 108.50 on the H1 timeframe and H4 resistance at 108.53 may encourage sellers into the market; some, however, could feel threatened by daily price testing the 200-day SMA. This dynamic value can generate strong S/R at times, given its popularity. Traders, therefore, may consider waiting for a daily close to form beneath the said SMA before taking action.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March saw lows not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains relevant in April, despite recent moves to said lows. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Supply at 1.2509/1.2372 and demand coming in from 1.2212/1.2075 remain dominant fixtures on this timeframe, with the former handling price action Wednesday and Thursday.
Outside of the current formation, demand-turned supply forms at 1.2649/1.2799 which has its lower edge aligned with a 200-day SMA value at 1.2648, whereas a breach to the downside could eventually have candles test the 1.15 neighbourhood: trendline supports.
The RSI indicator continues to hover around its mid-way point at 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Sterling chalked up its third successive daily gain Thursday amid a declining buck, with price action topping just ahead of supply fixed at 1.2622/1.2517, which merges with a 61.8% Fib retracement level at 1.2499.
Candlestick analysis reveals the unit recently printed back-to-back shooting star formations – considered bearish signals. Although this may appeal, the possibility of a pop into the supply zone mentioned above is a strong possibility.
H1 timeframe:
After a to-the-point retest at 1.24 formed heading into US trade Thursday, GBP/USD bulls went on the offensive, leaping to familiar supply at 1.2520/1.2455, which houses the 1.25 handle. The remainder of the US session, as you can see, produced little, confined within a narrow range between 1.2481/1.2439.
Should buyers regain consciousness, 1.25 will have its mettle tested, with a break exposing another layer of supply posted at 1.2610/1.2549, which contains the 1.26 handle within its upper limit.
Structures of Interest:
In a nutshell we have monthly buyers attempting to regain a foothold off 1.1904/1.2235, daily price consequently attacking the upper limit of supply at 1.2509/1.2372, H4 showing room to pop higher before reaching supply at 1.2622/1.2517 and H1 price meandering within the walls of supply at 1.2520/1.2455.
Sellers may make a showing if we test H4 supply (specifically H1 supply 1.2610/1.2549 as this area is contained within), though as of current price levels, buyers appear to have the upper hand.
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