Note—Charts provided by Trading View

US Dollar Index (Daily Timeframe):

Dollar action steadied last week, trimming a two-week bullish phase and registering a 0.3 percent decline.

Chart studies reveal price established a Dark Cloud Cover configuration (two-candle bearish pattern) at the beginning of last week around resistance at 92.38/91.96 (made up of a 61.8% Fib level at 92.38, a 127.2% Fib projection at 92.36, a fixed resistance level at 92.26, a 100% Fib extension at 91.96 and a 50.0% retracement residing at the same level).

As aired in recent weekly writing, the index topped south of the 103.00 figure in March 2020 and launched a series of lower lows and lower highs (a clear-cut downtrend—price swings: see black arrows)

In terms of technical support, 91.00 calls for attention this week, with subsequent downside throwing light on support around 90.00, followed by longer-term support at 89.34. Submerging the aforementioned supports will likely add conviction to the bearish narrative, perhaps activating longer-term breakout selling interest.

Also nearby 92.38/91.96 resistance is a 200-day simple moving average, circling 92.80. MAs regularly deliver support and resistance when tested, therefore resistance off this angle is possible this week, should we take on higher territory. Traders will also note price action has traded beneath this value since June 2020—a bearish signal.

The recent test of 92.38/91.96 also brought with it an RSI overbought signal, followed up with a dip to the 60.00 neighbourhood into the close of the week.

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

March, as you can see, remains toying with the upper side of 1.1857/1.1352 demand, with the month currently lower by nearly 1 percent.

Price action traders will have noted this demand test.

Any decisive rebound from the aforesaid demand shifts attention back to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been in play since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Dollar bulls went on the offensive Friday—lifted amid a surge higher in US Treasury yields—and weighed on EUR/USD action.

With the dollar index (see above) rejecting resistance at 92.38/91.96, this aided a EUR/USD recovery from support at 1.1887 earlier last week, a level surrounded by a 127.2% Fib projection at 1.1843 and a 100% Fib extension at 1.1855 (common around AB=CD patterns).

To the upside, technical traders will observe a 38.2% Fib level at 1.2021, representing an initial upside target out of AB=CD patterns.

The RSI oscillator, thanks to recent upside, is now on the brink of testing the lower side of the 50.00 centreline, with a break uncovering resistance at 60.30.

H4 timeframe:

Knowing monthly price is shaking hands with demand and daily price exhibits scope to extend recovery gains to around 1.2021, H4, after rebounding from support between 1.1818 and 1.1860 (Quasimodo support at 1.1818, 161.8% Fib projection at 1.1835 and a 100% extension at 1.1860), could make its way to resistance at 1.2027 this week.

H1 timeframe:

The combination of the 100-period simple moving average and a modest Fib cluster from a 61.8% Fib level at 1.1916 and a 50.00% retracement at 1.1913 (plotted ahead of the 1.19 figure and neighbouring demand at 1.1881/1.1865) provided short-term dip buyers a platform to work with during London/US hours on Friday. This, as you can see, subsequently delivered the currency pair to 1.1950 resistance.

North of the 1.1950 level, the pair is tipped to reach for the widely watched 1.20 figure, a psychological level placed just south of resistance at 1.2015 (a prior Quasimodo support level) and a 127.2% Fib projection at 1.2037.

RSI movement is seen crossing swords with trendline resistance around the 50.00 centreline. A break here may spark upside movement and possibly join hands with overbought levels.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Monthly price testing demand suggests daily bulls have the legs to carry them to at least the 38.2% Fib level at 1.2021 this week.

Short term:

With the higher timeframes implying buyers are to remain in the driving seat, and H4 showing room to reach resistance at 1.2027, H1 could make its way north of 1.1950 early week and trigger offers around the 1.20 figure.

Therefore, a short-term bullish bias may emerge early week, yet it’s worth noting that a test of resistance made up of a 38.2% daily Fib level at 1.2021, H4 resistance at 1.2027 and H1 resistance at 1.2015 (and the key figure 1.20) is perhaps sufficient to spark bearish flow (1.2027/1.20).
 

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s also interesting was February’s movement came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776), sheltered under supply from 0.8303/0.8082.

March, as you can probably see, trades higher by 0.6 percent, and remains within February’s range.

In the context of trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Technical action out of the daily chart reveals the pair rotated lower just south of trendline support-turned resistance Friday, taken from the low 0.5506. This was largely fuelled by a USD recovery amidst a healthy surge in US Treasury yields.

It is at the trendline resistance, in light of the monthly timeframe’s technical position (see above), daily sellers could make a show this week.

RSI action, as you can see, currently tests the 50.00 centreline following an earlier bounce from 42.00.

H4 timeframe:

Buyers and sellers went head-to-head at supply from 0.7811/0.7770 in the latter part of the week, an area sharing chart space with ascending resistance, drawn from the low 0.7563.

Downstream, technicians will note demand pencilled in around 0.7696/0.7715, with price likely to make a run for demand at 0.7601/0.7627 should further selling take shape.

Upstream, beyond supply at 0.7811/0.7770, we have demand-turned supply coming in at 0.7848/0.7867—housing a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7859.

H1 timeframe:

Early London adopted a bearish phase on Friday, dipping a toe in waters south of trendline support, etched from the low 0.7621. Subsequent movement registered a short-term bottom a handful of pips ahead of a 100-period simple moving average around 0.7720, which led to price retesting the breached trendline.

Additional areas to be mindful of on the H1 chart this week are the 0.77 figure, followed by the 61.8% Fib at 0.7689, and the 0.78 base along with supply at 0.7818/0.7807 (held price lower since early March).

Interestingly, the RSI indicator is seen engaging with the 50.00 centreline, following an earlier rebound ahead of oversold levels. Nearby, the indicator also reveals two trendline resistances (green) converging.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Longer term, the monthly and daily charts suggest sellers are likely to remain behind the wheel until February 2^nd low at 0.7563 enters view on the daily scale. However, before sellers make a show, a retest of daily trendline resistance could be on the cards.

Short term:

Across the page, a dip from H4 supply at 0.7811/0.7770 to H4 demand at 0.7696/0.7715 could be in the offing early week. What’s interesting is the 0.77 figure and 61.8% Fib level at 0.7689 (H1) shares a close connection with the H4 demand and, therefore, a bullish scenario forming from this region is not out of the question this week.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and further outperformance in February, March is on the verge of mounting a bullish assault (up by 2.4 percent) on descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66 (not considered traditional trendline resistance).

To the downside, support inhabits 101.70.

Daily timeframe:

As seen from the daily chart, buyers and sellers have been squaring off just beneath Quasimodo resistance at 109.38 (converges with the monthly timeframe’s descending resistance).

Price action traders are likely to be watching the aforementioned Quasimodo this week. However, knowing supply resides nearby at 110.94/110.29, stops above the Quasimodo head (blue arrow—109.85) could be taken.

Areas of note to the downside are support at 107.64—a previous Quasimodo resistance—and neighbouring supply-turned demand at 107.58/106.85.

With respect to trend, 2021 has firmly pointed to the upside.

Based on the RSI oscillator, the value reveals overbought conditions, currently spinning nearby resistance at 83.02. Also note the support formed around the 50.00ish range (common in trending environments).

H4 timeframe:

The best part of the week witnessed price fluctuate between Quasimodo resistance at 109.16 and demand coming in at 108.31/108.50.

To the north, this week may bring in supply drawn from 109.59/109.37 (holds daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38), while beneath current demand we have support at 108.09, followed by fresh demand parked at 107.81/108.01.

H1 timeframe:

Friday, just above notable demand at 108.67/108.78 (and the 100-period simple moving average), saw buyers and sellers battle for position around the 109 vicinity, forming a potential bullish flag pattern (109.16/108.90). While the aforementioned pattern is considered a bullish signal (should a breakout higher occur), relatively hefty resistance is in sight on the higher timeframes which may hinder upside.

With reference to the RSI oscillator, we are seeing the value marginally rebound from trendline support, following Friday’s retreat out of overbought territory.

Observed levels:

Long term:

With daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38 and the monthly timeframe’s descending resistance joining hands, this area may welcome selling this week if tested. However, before sellers put in an appearance, a whipsaw to daily supply at 110.94/110.29 could take shape.

Short term:

While the immediate trend has faced north since the beginning of the year, and the H1 is in the process of chalking up a bullish flag, H4 Quasimodo resistance at 109.16 and H4 supply from 109.59/109.37 (together with merging daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38 and the monthly descending resistance) could be problematic.

Therefore, upside momentum derived from any breakout above the H1 bullish flag may flatline and sellers may make a show.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum, as you can see, swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance—movement that stirred major trendline resistance (2.1161).

February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. March, on the other hand, has so far been lacklustre, unchanged as of current price.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way—April high, 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Trendline support, drawn from the low 1.1409, and support coming in at 1.3755, remain key levels on the daily chart this week.

Quasimodo resistance drawn from 1.4250 is also worth a shout, should buyers enter the scene, while territory beneath 1.3755 places Quasimodo support at 1.3609 in the line of fire.

Note the trend, clearly visible on this scale, has faced higher since early 2020.

On the basis of the RSI indicator, the value recoiled from support between 46.21 and 49.16, pursuing terrain north of the 50.00 centreline into the close.

H4 timeframe:

In the shape of a doji indecision candle, last week watched H4 withdraw from levels a few pips beneath Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007 (aligns with a 50.00% retracement). This led to a mostly one-sided decline Friday, testing waters ahead of 1.3852 support.

Interestingly, beyond 1.4007, resistance appears thin until around the 1.42ish point; beneath 1.3852, trendline resistance-turned support, etched from the high 1.4241, followed by demand at 1.3761/1.3789, is seen.

H1 timeframe:

As the H4 topped beneath Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007, H1 shaped a shooting star candle at the widely watched 1.40 level.

1.40, a psychological level that’s capped upside since late February, was clearly welcomed by sellers in early trading Friday, delivering a 140-pip decline. As you can see, though, following a brief spell under 1.39 (and the 100-period simple moving average), buyers staged a modest comeback (ahead of support at 1.3861) and reclaimed 1.39+ status into the closing hours.

Recent selling observed the RSI ricochet from oversold and test 48.00. North of 50.00, RSI followers will see trendline support-turned resistance commands space around 65.00.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Monthly price remains optimistic above trendline resistance, whereas daily price is poised to bring in trendline support and support coming in at 1.3755.

Short term:

H1 reclaiming 1.39 and the 100-period simple moving average to the upside is likely to be viewed as a bullish signal on shorter-term charts. Therefore, a retest of these levels may spark a bullish theme back to 1.40 this week.

However, H1 support at 1.3861 and H4 support from 1.3852 is also an area that could still make an entrance.

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