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The Pattern Pulse – 9 January 2025

The Pattern Pulse – 9 January 2025, FP Markets

Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.

The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.

Forex: Dollar Index Testing Major Resistance

Monthly Timeframe:

According to the US Dollar Index, the US dollar (USD) has started 2025 reasonably strongly, up 0.6%.

Following a rebound just north of the 50-month simple moving average at 101.12 in Q4 24, current price action is shaking hands with long-term resistance from 109.33. However, with momentum remaining solid (the Relative Strength Index has recoiled from the 50.00 centreline and has room to move higher until reaching overbought territory), further buying could be seen over the coming months. This could see the Dollar Index target the 2022 peak of 114.78, closely followed by channel resistance, extended from the high of 103.65.

The Pattern Pulse – 9 January 2025, FP MarketsCommodities: A Lot is Happening on Gold!

Daily Timeframe:

While the price of Gold (XAU/USD) has been rangebound since December 2024, a possible AB=CD harmonic support zone at US$2,471 continues to call for attention. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio also complements this support at US$2,473. Investors will also likely take note of the double-top pattern around the December 2024 peak of US$2,726. The pattern’s neckline at US$2,605 has been breached, and its profit objective conveniently resides just above the AB=CD support at US$2,483.

So, two patterns indicate that a push lower could materialise before buyers attempt to step in. However, given Gold’s clear uptrend, a bullish move above the December 2024 peak also remains possible.

The Pattern Pulse – 9 January 2025, FP MarketsEquities: Rising Wedge Breach for the Nasdaq 100

Daily Timeframe:

The daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 saw price action venture south of a rising wedge pattern in late December, taken from the low of 17,435. However, it is struggling to gain a foothold below the 50-day simple moving average, trading at 21,065.

Given this, investors will likely remain cautious for the time being until either a defined break below the 50-day simple moving average occurs or price prints a fresh higher high.

The Pattern Pulse – 9 January 2025, FP MarketsCryptocurrency: Trouble Ahead for BTC/USD?

Daily Timeframe:

Since early December 2024, BTC/USD (Bitcoin versus the US dollar) has traded tentatively around US$100,000. What is interesting from a technical perspective is the formation of a potential (complex) head and shoulders top pattern (left shoulders at US$99,806 and US$104.047; head at US$108.396; possible right shoulders at US$99,887 and US$102.750). Were price action to engulf the pattern’s neckline (taken from the low of US$90,731), this could send the major Crypto pairing as far south as support from US$71,922.

The Pattern Pulse – 9 January 2025, FP MarketsDISCLAIMER: The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

 

 

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