The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.

Forex: Long-Term Hammer Pattern for GBP/USD

Monthly Timeframe:

Longer-term price action on the GBP/USD (British pound versus the US dollar) erased 6.5% in Q4 24. Following this, price shook hands with support at US$1.2173 earlier in January this year and is on track to establish a hammer candlestick pattern (bullish signal).

Despite the overall long-term trend facing south and the fact that we are still essentially entrenched in a pullback, this candle pattern could be considered a sign of strength. Should follow-through buying emerge, resistance is near at US$1.2715, followed by another layer of resistance at US$1.3111.

Commodities: Oil Testing Support Confluence

Daily Timeframe:

WTI oil (West Texas Intermediate) is down 10% following a top of US$80.73 printed in mid-January, positioning the unit within support between US$71.54 and US$72.89. Bolstering the said zone is a local trendline support, extended from the low of US$67.07 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at US$71.97. However, with price action probing trendline support and the Relative Strength Index also venturing south of trendline support, this may be a concern for traders seeking long opportunities.

Equities: S&P 500 Clocks Record High

Daily Timeframe:

The S&P 500 touched a fresh record high of 6,128 last week and has since retraced to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 5,984. As you can see, the market index has held this dynamic value as support. Given the underlying trend facing north, this opens the door for the unit to challenge (and possibly engulf) the all-time high.

Failure to hold current levels could have the index venture beneath the SMA to test support from 5,828 (note that this level also currently aligns with a 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio of 5,801 [an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bullish structure]), and perhaps another layer of support from 5,724.

Cryptocurrency: BTC/USD Poised to Breakout Higher

Daily Timeframe:

For those who read last week’s Pattern Pulse, I highlighted that Bitcoin versus the US dollar (BTC/USD) is consolidating between support of US$91,591 and US$108,396. Despite the major Crypto pair still exhibiting a range, buyers appear poised to breakout higher. Not only has US$100,000 recently delivered support (aided by the 50-day SMA at US$98,600), but the trend in this market is also firmly to the upside.

While some investors will already be long based on the retest of US$100,000 as support, a breakout beyond the upper range edge could be on the menu and prompt breakout buying to refresh all-time highs beyond US$109,580.

Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill

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