The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.

Forex: Further Underperformance for the US Dollar Index?

Monthly and Daily Timeframes:

Down nearly 4.0% this month, the US Dollar Index demonstrates scope to navigate deeper waters on the monthly chart towards the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 101.72. A similar vibe is evident on the daily chart. Following a test of support-turned-resistance at 103.94, a possible bearish scenario could unfold if price breaches the lower edge of the current descending triangle pattern (103.22/104.09). If a breakout lower materialises, follow-through downside could see support at 101.92 make an entrance (set just north of the 50-month SMA).

Commodities: Is There Any Stopping the Gold Rally?

Monthly Timeframe:

Underpinned amid tariff concerns and Middle East tensions, Spot Gold versus the US dollar (XAU/USD) is on track to pencil in another record month, currently up 6.5% and testing all-time highs of US$3,057. Leaving the decision point zone at US$2,428-US$2.29 unchallenged, further outperformance could be on the table for the precious metal according to the monthly chart’s structure, with a potential resistance zone calling for attention between US$3,264 and US$3,187 (1.618% and 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratios, respectively). Also relevant is the monthly chart’s Relative Strength Index, which resides deep within overbought terrain and is shaking hands with familiar long-term resistance at 87.31-82.20.

Equities: S&P 500 Closing in on 200-Day SMA

Weekly and Daily Timeframes:

While the weekly chart of the S&P 500 is responding to support around 5,577 – made up of local descending support, extended from the high of 5,669, and a channel resistance-turned-support line, taken from the high of 4,119 – resistance warrants attention on the daily chart, and could prove tricky for equity longs. This resistance includes the 200-day SMA at 5,746 and a local trendline resistance, extended from around the all-time high of 6,147.

Technically, higher timeframes usually take precedence over shorter timeframes. Therefore, a breakout higher could be on the cards. However, given the on-off tariffs narrative and US growth concerns, further downside is also possible from daily resistance.

Cryptocurrency: Completed Elliot Wave Pattern for ETH/USD?

Weekly Timeframe:

A ‘12345 Elliot Wave pattern’ is poised to complete its final bearish wave five on the weekly chart of ETH/USD (Ethereum versus the US dollar) based on wave one equalling wave five. Should bulls step in from current levels, neighbouring resistance is visible at US$2,126.

Charts created using TradingView

Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill

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