Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.

The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.

Forex: Dollar Index Refreshes Year-to-Date Peaks

Monthly Timeframe:

As expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the funds rate by 25 basis points yesterday and echoed a strong hawkish bias for 2025/26. This led to the US Dollar (USD) Index rallying higher, with the greenback refreshing year-to-date highs of 108.27 and is on track to finish the year out by nearly 7.0% in the green.

What makes the USD interesting from a technical perspective is that the monthly chart exhibits the possibility of running higher towards resistance at 109.33. Subsequent buying beyond this barrier could also mean further outperformance towards 2022 peaks of 114.78 and channel resistance, extended from the high of 103.65.

Commodities: Spot Gold Eyeing AB=CD Support?

Daily Timeframe:

With the daily price of spot gold (XAU/USD) again rejecting resistance from US$2,716, this unearths a possible AB=CD harmonic support zone at US$2,473. This support is also complemented by Fibonacci support from 38.2% and 61.8% retracement ratios at US$2,479 and US$2,475, respectively. In addition, a 1.272% extension ratio at US$2,488 and a clear-cut uptrend is seen. Consequently, although this pattern may not be completed this year, it is one that many will likely consider adding to the watchlist for 2025.

Equities: Rising Wedge Breach on the S&P 500

Daily Timeframe:

Price action across all major US equity benchmarks plunged lower yesterday on the back of the Fed’s hawkish stance. You will note from the S&P 500 that the market index ventured south of a rising wedge pattern, taken from the low of 5,119 and pushed through the 50-day simple moving average at 5,922. While considered a bearish sign, neighbouring support at 5,863 will be a key barrier to monitor. Obviously, a rejection of said support indicates a lack of bearish follow-through, while a breakout lower could trigger further selling toward a support area between 5,658 and 5,700.

Cryptocurrency: Negative Divergence for BTC/USD

Daily Timeframe:

As evident from the daily chart of BTC/USD (Bitcoin versus the US dollar), price action recently corrected from all-time highs of US$108,396 and has retested US$100,000 to potentially form support. The issue with entering long from US$100,000 is that the Relative Strength Index (known more commonly as the ‘RSI’) shows signs of negative divergence, meaning upside momentum is losing steam.

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