Charts: Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

South of ascending support-turned resistance, taken from the low $1.1641, June’s 3.0 percent loss persuaded EUR/USD to retest support from $1.1857-1.1352. A bullish revival shines light on 2021 peaks at $1.2349.

Month to date, September trades 0.3 percent higher.

Based on trend studies, a primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the $1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Further adding to this, price penetrated major trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.6038, in July 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Against a basket of six foreign currencies, the US dollar index remained on the winning side of the table on Tuesday amid rising US Treasury yields. The DXY climbing 0.3 percent into the European close weighed on EUR/USD, extending its retracement from late July tops at $1.1909ish.

Quasimodo support calls for attention around $1.1688 in the event sellers remain in the driving seat. Though buyers regaining consciousness could witness resistance between $1.2033 and $1.1994 eventually make an entrance.

Interestingly, the relative strength index (RSI) recently stabilised within striking distance of resistance at 64.93, which elbows support at 53.19 back in view.

H4 timeframe:

$1.1907 resistance has proven a tenacious ceiling since late June. Chart studies indicate a run above $1.1907 could still be in the offing, as buy-stops above $1.1907 may be enough to fuel offers at $1.1955-1.1933, creating a short-term bearish phase.

Nevertheless, prior to the above coming to fruition, if at all, drawing in buyers from support at $1,1785-1.1823 is a possible scenario.

H1 timeframe:

Latest developments out of the H1 reveal the currency pair slipped below the 100-period simple moving average at $1.1865, a move shining the technical spotlight on a decision point at $1.1812-1.1824. While the aforesaid zone lacks freshness, it invites Fibonacci confluence between $1.1817 and $1.1831.

In addition to the decision point and Fibonacci influence, the relative strength index (RSI) is likely to record oversold conditions.

Observed levels:

The combination of monthly support from $1.1857-1.1352 and H4 support at $1,1785-1.1823 seats the H1 decision point at $1.1812-1.1824 and associated Fibonacci ratios in a strong light if tested today.

Any upside attempts from the H1 base is likely to INITIALLY zero in on the 100-period simple moving average at $1.1865.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Month to date, September is higher by 1.1 percent, trimming a portion of the recent three-month decline.

Long-term areas to be mindful of are support at $0.6305-0.6872 and supply coming in at $0.8303-0.8082, along with trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low $1.4776.

Trend studies (despite the trendline resistance [drawn from the high $1.0582] breach in July 2020) show the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) is in play until breaking $0.8135 (January high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Following the breach of 4^th August high at $0.7427, and despite an early pop higher in response to the RBA’s policy announcements, Tuesday delivered a bearish outside reversal.

The broad-based USD bid aided recent declines, unlocking the possibility of a continuation lower back to the 1.618% Fib projection at $0.7114.

Addressing resistance between $0.7665 and $0.7590 is still an option provided buyers make a stand. $0.7665-0.7590 consists of a 61.8% Fib retracement at $0.7665, a Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $0.7621, the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7605 and another 61.8% Fib retracement at $0.7590.

Focus on the relative strength index (RSI) remains on trendline resistance, taken from the high 80.12. Also of note is overbought space, in particular resistance at 80.19.

H4 timeframe:

In light of Tuesday’s downside, AUD/USD gnawed through a decision point at $0.7393-0.7410 and the channel support, taken from the low $0.7107.

Withdrawing lower positions the currency pair in a short-term bearish space. $0.7393-0.7410 serving as resistance tempts a potential move to support at 0.7339 which happens to join hands with a 38.2% Fib retracement.

H1 timeframe:

A closer reading of price action on the H1 scale places price action south of $0.74 as we look to wrap up Tuesday’s session.

The demand at $0.7356-0.7368 is a zone worthy of interest in the event sellers maintain a bearish position sub $0.74, with a break lower directing focus towards $0.73.

The relative strength index (RSI) shook hands with support at 27.02, situated within oversold territory.

Observed levels:

Short-term action reveals a possible bearish theme emerging beneath $0.74, aided by the $0.7393-0.7410 H4 decision point and the daily timeframe’s bearish outside reversal.

Reasonable downside objectives fall in at the H1 timeframe’s demand from $0.7356-0.7368, followed by $0.73.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since April retested descending resistance-turned support, etched from the high ¥118.66, price action has maintained moderate support. Pursuing higher levels could eventually strive for long-term supply at ¥126.10-122.66.

Month to date, September trades 0.3 percent in the green.

Daily timeframe:

Demand for the Japanese yen waned Tuesday as US Treasury yields rallied. Continued interest to the upside on USD/JPY throws light on resistance at ¥111.88-111.20.

Technical support remains evident around the 61.8% Fib retracement at ¥109.07. More engaging, nonetheless, is the harmonic Gartley pattern’s potential reversal zone between ¥107.50 and ¥108.41, reinforced by supply-turned demand at ¥107.58-106.85.

When it comes to trend, USD/JPY has been higher in 2021.

The relative strength index (RSI) shows the value attempting to exit the upper edge of its range between 40.94 and 54.43, an area forming since early July. This—coupled with the indicator pushing above the 50.00 centreline—informs traders momentum to the upside is gaining traction: average gains exceed average losses.

H4 timeframe:

As you can see, supply at ¥110.56-110.29 re-entered the fray on Tuesday, leaving Quasimodo support at ¥109.48 unchallenged.

Air space north of ¥110.56-110.29 unmasks additional supply coming in from ¥110.99-110.80.

H1 timeframe:

According to the H1 scale, we’re closing in on resistance at ¥110.32, a level sharing a connection with the relative strength index (RSI) joining resistance at 78.38.

Although ¥110.32 resides within the lower edge of H4 supply mentioned above at ¥110.56-110.29, technicians will note Quasimodo resistance at ¥110.48 as the next upside target if buyers take on ¥110.32.

Observed levels:

H1 resistance at ¥110.32, the H1 RSI resistance at 78.38 and H4 supply at ¥110.56-110.29 highlights confluence to be mindful of.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since February, GBP/USD has echoed an indecisive environment below $1.4377: April high 2018. This follows December’s (2020) trendline resistance breach, taken from the high $2.1161, a descending barrier possibly serving as support if retested.

Month to date, September trades 0.2 percent higher.

Primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until $1.4377 gives way.

Daily timeframe:

Analysis largely unchanged from previous writing.

Aside from fluctuating around the 200-day simple moving average at $1.3812, areas to be cognisant of are resistance at $1.4003 and Quasimodo support at $1.3609.

With reference to trend on this chart, the pair has been somewhat rangebound since late February.

Momentum to the upside is slowing, according to the relative strength index (RSI). The value turned off 56.14 and is now attempting to explore water below the 50.00 centreline.

H4 timeframe:

On the back of a USD bid, GBP/USD drilled into the $1.3766-1.3799 decision point on Tuesday, a downside objective underlined in Tuesday’s technical briefing. Despite uninspiring bullish action thus far, this is an area buyers may put in an appearance heading into London today. Failure to hold, however, could bring in $1.3732 support.

H1 timeframe:

For those who read Tuesday’s technical briefing you might recall the following (italics):

$1.38 has ‘whipsaw’ written all over it. Potentially heavy bids, therefore, might be attracted to the area marked in yellow between $1.3774 and $1.3787 in order to welcome sell-stops beneath $1.38.

As evident from the chart, $1.38 did indeed welcome a whipsaw on Tuesday and bids were present between $1.3774 and $1.3787. Yet, the inability to reclaim position above $1.38 (which has the 100-period simple moving average to target at $1.3822 if price trades higher) is concerning and may see the unit dip into support at $1.3737-1.3774.

Supporting a recovery attempt is the relative strength index (RSI), dipping its toe in oversold waters and exiting the range.

Observed levels:

The H4 timeframe working with the $1.3766-1.3799 decision point, and H1 bids filled south of $1.38 between $1.3774 and $1.3787, could bring about a short-term bullish scene, targeting at least the 100-period simple moving average at $1.3822.

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