EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

August saw the euro nudge to a fourth successive monthly gain against the US dollar, adding nearly 1.5 percent. The move toppled supply from 1.1857/1.1352 and extended space north of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038), arguing additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641). Despite this, the primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.2555 is engulfed (Feb 1 high [2018]).

Trading in September is down more than 0.8 percent.

Daily timeframe:

Price remains contained within the parapets of a rising channel pattern (1.1695/1.1909), and is also hampered by supply at 1.2012/1.1937, extended from May 2018.

Recently, the pair marginally probed beneath the aforesaid channel support and fashioned a hammer candlestick pattern. Sufficient to potentially stimulate buyers, this could trigger an approach to the aforesaid supply.

With respect to the RSI indicator, we remain inside a (near) two-month descending channel formation, currently hovering nearby the upper limit.

H4 timeframe:

Two trendline supports (1.1965/1.1185), as well as support at 1.1753, was a highlighted area in Thursday’s analysis. As you can see, price responded from the aforesaid region yesterday and rallied strongly, with today possibly reaching for supply at 1.1928/1.1902 (prior demand), located under the current daily supply.

H1 timeframe:

Thursday’s advance secured ground above 1.18, following a decisive recovery off 1.1750 support. This led to price marginally surpassing the 100-period simple moving average and crossing paths with 1.1850 resistance. Traders will note a trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1798) resides just above the level, with resistance at 1.1880 also plotted nearby.

Structures of Interest:

The monthly timeframe suggests buyers could push beyond supply at 1.1857/1.1352. In conjunction with the monthly chart, daily price rejected channel support. Intraday also exhibits scope to advance and attack supply at 1.1928/1.1902 on the H4 timeframe. With this in mind, the current H1 resistances may give way today and unlock the door for bullish signals to the 1.19 level (marks the underside of H4 supply at 1.1928/1.1902).

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

July’s rally, coupled with August’s 3.3% follow-through, witnessed supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) abandon its position. Technically, buyers appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

While price has indeed removed trendline resistance and supply, traders might still want to take into account the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

In recent sessions, AUD/USD has echoed an indecisive stance between demand at 0.7131/0.7192 (a drop-base-rally area) and supply at 0.7453/0.7384, an area which recently capped YTD peaks at 0.7413.

Support at 0.7067 is seen should we push through the aforesaid demand.

The trend, according to the daily timeframe, has emphasised a positive tone since bottoming in late March.

Indicator-based traders may also recognise the RSI holds support at 53.00, a clear S/R level since October 2019.

H4 timeframe:

Breaking down the H4 timeframe, traders will note the candles are entrenched within an ascending channel formation, drawn between 0.7247/0.7324. Also capping upside is supply at 0.7339/0.7357 (prior demand), while drilling south throws light on trendline support (0.7076).

A reaction to the upside may eventually see price cross paths with supply at 0.7433/0.7414 (inhabits daily supply at 0.7453/0.7384).

H1 timeframe:

Recent action dethroned 0.73 and the 100-period simple moving average to the upside, and is possibly tipped for more outperformance towards supply at 0.7346/0.7333, sheltered under a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.7347 and 0.7350 resistance.

The RSI indicator also overrun its 50.00 centreline, yet faces nearby trendline resistance.

Structures of Interest:

Room to move higher is seen across all four timeframes. A 0.73 retest on the H1, therefore, may entice dip-buying today.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. As you can see, though, price is currently testing the lower boundary of the aforesaid pattern.

Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Supply from 107.58/106.85 proved a tough nut to crack in August, an area demonstrating a close connection with trendline resistance from 111.71.

Recording a fourth successive daily loss Thursday positions the pair south of support at 105.10/105.29, testing monthly support at 104.62.

With reference to the RSI, the value is pointing south, heading for oversold space.

H4 timeframe:

Retesting the underside of supply at 105.06/105.30 led to a decisive sell-off Thursday, with the decline cutting into monthly support at 104.62. Also of note is a deep 88.6% Fib level at 104.51. Breaking lower is likely to have sellers target support coming in from 104.21.

H1 timeframe:

Rebounding from monthly support at 104.62 on Thursday, positioned ahead of 104.50 support, intraday found resistance around 104.82. A sustained climb here may swing 105 into sight, a level closely sheltered by supply from 105.23/105.14.

The RSI oscillator is still seen struggling to secure position out of oversold territory. The 50.00 region has proven a persistent resistance.

Structures of Interest:

The monthly support level at 104.62, derived from the lower boundary of a descending triangle pattern, could prove troublesome for sellers. Buyers pushing for at least 105 on the H1 would not be a surprise. However, traders are likely expecting sellers to make an entrance here, owing to the lower edge of daily supply circling 105.10 and H4 supply at 105.06. H1 supply at 105.23/105.14, therefore, is likely to appeal.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Leaving trendline resistance taken from 2.1161 unopposed, September currently trades lower by 2.9 percent, on track to retest trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191).

Interestingly, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

The four-day recovery from demand at 1.2645/1.2773 (houses the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2729) has proven notable, generating enough impetus for price to explore the upper range of nearby supply at 1.3021/1.2844. Breaching here throws light on resistance at 1.3201.

The RSI indicator also recently bottomed ahead of oversold territory and shaped hidden bullish divergence. The value now trades within close proximity of 50.00.

H4 timeframe:

Demand at 1.2874/1.2915 made a show in recent trading and had its lower edge taken by a handful of pips. This was clearly not enough to discourage buyers as we saw the pair elevate to higher levels heading into the US open.

Supply at 1.3055/1.3018 remains on the radar, with a break uncovering another supply at 1.3116/1.3160 (prior demand) and two trendline resistances (prior supports – 1.2981/1.3005).

H1 timeframe:

The 1.29 level, at the point it merged with trendline support (1.2773), was brought into the light Thursday, albeit taking on a whipsaw to the 100-period simple moving average around 1.2879.

Buyers welcomed the 1.29 confluence and made a dash for the widely watched 1.30 psychological level, pinned just beneath resistance priced at 1.3024.

Structures of Interest:

• Monthly price suggests we could be heading for further losses until around 1.26 (monthly trendline support).

• Daily price is seen navigating the upper levels of supply at 1.3021/1.2844.

• H4 holds demand at 1.2874/1.2915, implying moves to supply at 1.3055/1.3018 may be seen.

On account of the above, and taking into consideration where we trade on the H1 right now (under 1.30), a whipsaw above 1.30 to test H1 resistance at 1.3024 and the lower ledge of H4 supply at 1.3018 is a possible scenario. Testing 1.3024/1.3018 and closing back under 1.30 on the H1 could fuel sellers to take the currency pair lower.

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