The AUD/USD currency pair (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) is on track to snap a two-month winning streak. It is down nearly -2.0% month to date, largely driven by risk sentiment.

Monthly and Daily Resistance Levels

Technically, the AUD/USD faded monthly resistance at $0.6670, which combines with the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle, or ‘coil’, taken from $0.7158 and $0.6170. Adding ‘technical’ weight to said resistances is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining south of the 50.00 centreline since April 2022, indicating negative momentum.

On the daily timeframe, last week’s precipitous decline breached several key support levels, including $0.6580 and $0.6591, leaving both levels open for a retest this week. Another notable observation is the scope to continue exploring deeper water until reaching support from $0.6488 (you will note that this area also represents Quasimodo support).

Price Direction

Overall, the trend direction is relatively difficult to define at the moment. Therefore, recent downside sentiment, coupled with daily resistance, could be something sellers show interest in if tested, targeting daily support at $0.6488.

As a note, do remain aware that we have Aussie Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation out on Wednesday. These numbers have proven rather sticky in 2024, leading the Reserve Bank of Australia to strike a hawkish tone in recent meetings – a 20% chance of a hike is currently priced in for the August meeting.

Should inflation come in hotter than expected this week, this could see rate-hike expectations increase and would place current daily resistance in a tricky spot. On the flip side, current resistance could be worthy of attention should a downside surprise in data materialise.

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