EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

August, as you can see, toppled supply from 1.1857/1.1352 and extended space north of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038), arguing additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

Trading in September, however, concluded down more than 1.8 percent, snapping a four-month winning streak and refocusing attention on trendline resistance (now support).

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.2555 is engulfed (Feb 1 high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Wednesday finished on the backfoot, although considerably off worst levels.

The currency pair’s technical position, in spite of recent selling interest, is still tipped for more outperformance towards channel resistance (1.1695).

Support at 1.1553 remains an obvious floor on this timeframe, located ahead of demand at 1.1369/1.1450.

The RSI oscillator, after spinning just north of oversold levels at the beginning of the week, remains hovering just beneath the 50.00 region and notable trendline resistance.

H4 timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

1.1753 resistance (sheltered just under a 38.2% Fib level at 1.1764) made an entrance Wednesday, as expected (see Wednesday’s analysis), sending the pair back into the walls of demand at 1.1682/1.1716.

A break of 1.1764 creates space to test trendline resistance (1.2011), whereas additional downside could target demand at 1.1580/1.1626.

H1 timeframe:

Initial trade on Wednesday saw RSI trendline support give way, providing an early sign that momentum to the upside was likely to diminish around 1.1750 resistance, and diminish it did.

Price action, going into the London session, put in a decisive bearish candle that crossed paths with 1.17. Drawn just ahead of the 100-period simple moving average, however, we can see bulls defended the psychological line and retested the mettle of 1.1750.

Interestingly, 1.1750 aligns closely with H4 resistance at 1.1753 and the 1.17 level is housed within H4 demand at 1.1682/1.1716.

Above 1.1750, H1 supply is visible at 1.1798/1.1776, sheltered under the 1.18 level, whereas a dip under the 100-period simple moving average today is likely to hone in on 1.1650 support and throw the RSI into oversold terrain.

Structures of Interest:

Despite testing above monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, September’s depreciation echoes the possibility of further declines to retest the recently penetrated monthly trendline.

Daily price reveals space to reach for higher levels until channel resistance, which unites with the H4 trendline resistance and the 1.18 level applied to the H1. This suggests a pop to the 1.18 region could occur before sellers make a show.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The month of September (lower by 2.9 percent) snapped a five-month winning streak and revisited the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply). Technically, buyers appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In addition to the above, traders might want to take into account the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Arranged by way of three successive daily bullish candles out of demand at 0.6964/0.7042, mapped just ahead of support at 0.6931, price is seen testing the range of supply at 0.7131/0.7192 (prior demand).

The trend, according to the daily timeframe, has emphasised a positive tone since bottoming in late March. Traders may also recognise the RSI recently recovered from oversold turf and is on course to retest 53.00 resistance.

H4 timeframe:

Fresh supply coming in from 0.7177/0.7154 embraced price action in the second half of the US session Wednesday, testing its entire range.

The lack of selling interest seen thus far will have market watchers consider supply from 0.7234/0.7199 (intersects with a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7214). However, should sellers regain consciousness, demand at 0.7100/0.7117 and support nearby at 0.7080 are likely to be targeted.

H1 timeframe:

With the 100-period simple moving average twisting higher, candle action regained some poise off the 0.71 level in early Europe on Wednesday. This led to the US session dethroning 0.7150 resistance and crossing paths with supply at 0.7178/0.7163, a rally-base-drop formation.

Upside, as you can see, diminished within the aforesaid supply, with 0.7150 perhaps serving as support going forward and encouraging moves to the 0.72 level. Interestingly, the RSI indicator pencilled in bearish divergence, formed by way of a double-top pattern.

Structures of Interest:

Monthly price retesting 0.7029/0.6664 as demand prompts a bullish theme, placing a question mark on daily supply from 0.7131/0.7192 as well as H4 supply at 0.7177/0.7154. Technically then, 0.7150 support on the H1 may welcome an intraday bullish approach to overrun H1 supply at 0.7178/0.7163 to test 0.72 (essentially the lower edge of H4 supply at 0.7199).

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

September tested the lower boundary of the aforesaid pattern and ended the month off worst levels.

Areas of interest outside of the triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Recent recovery gains off monthly support at 104.62 (the lower boundary of the monthly descending triangle), despite price recently stalling around the 105.50 neighbourhood, invites the prospect of additional bullish sentiment towards trendline resistance (111.71) and nearby supply at 107.58/106.85 (also joined by the 200-day simple moving average).

The RSI, for those who follow momentum oscillators, recently bottomed ahead of oversold levels and is currently hovering around the 50.00 mark.

H4 timeframe:

Despite lacklustre performance out of supply at 105.82/105.66, an area that stores a 61.8% Fib level within its upper boundary at 105.81, the zone is proving a tough nut to crack.

Additional areas of interest on the H4 chart are resistance at 105.98 and supply from 106.38/106.23, with a demand seen at 104.92/105.09.

H1 timeframe:

Since September 25, intraday activity has been entrenched within an ascending channel between 105.20/105.69. Wednesday finished at session lows, elbowing under 105.50 support to throw light on channel support and a nearby 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.32. Below here, market watchers may also find use in noting demand (prior supply) at 105.23/105.14.

With reference to the RSI indicator, the value is seen nearing support at 37.20.

Structures of Interest:

Monthly support at 104.62 (lower base of the monthly descending triangle) holding price higher in September, along with the daily chart exhibiting room to approach trendline resistance and supply coming in from 107.58/106.85, signals buyers still have a hand in this fight.

The combination of H1 channel support and the H1 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.32, in view of the higher timeframe landscape, offers buyers a floor to consider. A H1 close above 105.50 H1 resistance is likely to add conviction to the upside.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Leaving trendline resistance taken from 2.1161 unopposed, September sunk 3.4 percent, on track to retest trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191). Interestingly, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Recording a fifth successive daily gain off the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2715, stored inside demand at 1.2645/1.2773, supply at 1.3021/1.2844 remains a potential problem.

Violating the aforesaid demand shines light on another demand placed at 1.2192/1.2361, an area that contained downside in late June, whereas moves higher target resistance at 1.3201.

The RSI indicator recently formed a double-bottom pattern ahead of oversold space.

H4 timeframe:

Supply at 1.2965/1.2911, after failing to prompt much downside at the beginning of the week, re-entered the fray during US trading on Wednesday. What’s also technically appealing here is price breached the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern (1.2929/1.2828), signalling a possible run above current supply to 1.2981 (the pattern’s take-profit target – green). Supply at 1.3055/1.3018 is next in line, with a break of here unmasking another supply at 1.3116/1.3160 (prior demand).

H1 timeframe:

Wednesday had price push through orders at 1.29 going into the US session, and welcome a retest during the afternoon session. As you can see, buyers embraced the retest and are on course to cross paths with supply at 1.2966/1.2948, a rally-base-drop formation. Assuming a break of this area, traders can look forward to the widely watched 1.30 figure perhaps offering resistance.

Also of note is the RSI oscillator testing overbought space and forming bearish divergence.

Structures of Interest:

Intraday, buyers appear to have the advantage. The lack of selling pressure derived out of H4 supply at 1.2965/1.2911 earlier in the week, coupled with the H4 falling wedge pattern in play and H1 recently retesting 1.29 support, is likely to witness H1 supply at 1.2966/1.2948 make a show, with a break to test/complete the H4 falling wedge pattern at 1.2981.

Against the backdrop of intraday movement, the bigger picture echoes a somewhat bearish tone:

• Monthly price displays scope to push lower until testing trendline support (around 1.26ish).

• Daily price, albeit holding onto a bullish tone derived from demand at 1.2645/1.2773, currently faces supply at 1.3021/1.2844.

On account of this, H1 buyers off 1.29 are unlikely to expect much beyond the 1.30 level.

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