October 15th 2020: GBP Flirting with 1.30 Amid Reports of UK/EU Progress

October 15th 2020: GBP Flirting with 1.30 Amid Reports of UK/EU Progress, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

August, as you can see, toppled supply from 1.1857/1.1352 and extended space north of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038), arguing additional upside may eventually be on the horizon, targeting trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641). Despite this, before seeking higher territory, a dip to the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support) could materialise.

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.2555 is engulfed (Feb 1 high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.1872/1.1818, a rally-base-drop configuration, is proving a tough nut to crack, an area positioned under another supply coming in from 1.2012/1.1937.

The trend on the daily timeframe has displayed a bullish vibe since March. Additionally, the RSI oscillator, despite recently dipping back under 50.00, took over trendline resistance.

H4 timeframe:

Channel resistance (1.1684), as you can see, received price action on Wednesday, following a near-test of demand at 1.1682/1.1716 earlier in the session.

Below 1.1682/1.1716, we seem starved of support until demand featured at 1.1580/1.1626. Moving through channel resistance, on the other hand, a possible run to supply at 1.1872/1.1838 could occur, a rally-base-drop configuration.

H1 timeframe:

Confirmation by way of RSI bullish divergence out of oversold space, Wednesday had price eventually rebound from demand at 1.1719/1.1735 and dethrone 1.1750 resistance. With the latter welcoming a retest heading into the closing stages of NY, additional outperformance from here could have buyers target supply at 1.1799/1.1783, and the 1.18 level.

Structures of Interest:

Despite recent enthusiasm out of H1 demand from 1.1719/1.1735, buyers face considerable resistance on the higher timeframes (H4 channel resistance [1.1684]; daily supply at 1.1872/1.1818; monthly price displaying scope to retest trendline support) and may struggle to reach H1 supply at 1.1799/1.1783.

Therefore, failure to hold off 1.1750 support is a strong possibility.

Breaking under 1.1750, assuming the latter is retested, may catch the attention of bearish eyes, with 1.17 in sight as a possible target.

October 15th 2020: GBP Flirting with 1.30 Amid Reports of UK/EU Progress, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The month of September (lower by 2.9 percent) snapped a five-month winning streak and tested the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply). From a structural standpoint, buyers appear to have the upper hand, free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, though, traders might want to take into account the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Obvious areas of note on the daily chart are demand coming in from 0.6964/0.7042, and a rally-base-drop supply formation at 0.7345/0.7287 (sheltered just under another area of supply at 0.7453/0.7384).

Another key observation is RSI support-turned resistance at 52.00.

H4 timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Since crossing paths with trendline resistance (0.7413) at the beginning of the week, AUD/USD folded over and recently joined hands with demand at 0.7147/0.7170. The lack of buying seen out of the zone questions bullish commitment. Slipping through the aforesaid demand shines light on another demand area at 0.7073/0.7097 (as well as support at 0.7080).

H1 timeframe:

Buying interest deteriorated off 0.7150 (and 61.8% Fib level from 0.7151) Wednesday, hampered by the 100-period simple moving average circling around 0.7190. As upside could prove unsustainable, slicing through 0.7150 to test sizeable demand at 0.7105/0.7134 could be a theme we see play out today. However, do note a whipsaw to 0.71 is equally possible.

Structures of Interest:

A whipsaw through 0.7150 on the H1 could materialise today, having seen the lack of bullish commitment out of H4 demand from 0.7147/0.7170.

Should the above come to fruition, buyers may show their face within H1 demand at 0.7105/0.7134, on the basis of monthly price testing 0.7029/0.6664 as demand and the trend on the daily timeframe demonstrating an upside bias since March.

October 15th 2020: GBP Flirting with 1.30 Amid Reports of UK/EU Progress, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

September, as you can see, tested the lower boundary of the aforesaid pattern and ended the month modestly off worst levels, with October now emphasising a hesitant tone.

Areas of interest outside of the triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Supply at 106.33/105.78, perhaps encouraged by the RSI oscillator also fading resistance at 57.00, remains dominant structure on the daily timeframe. Despite Tuesday’s attempt at reviving a bullish theme, Wednesday ended lower by 0.3 percent.

Monthly support at 104.62 (the lower boundary of the monthly descending triangle), therefore, is now back on the radar as a downside target.

H4 timeframe:

The supply area forged at 105.52/105.69 (prior demand), as you can see, did a superb job at holding back buyers in recent sessions, prompting a decisive sell-off yesterday into the parapets of demand at 104.92/105.09.

Demand at 104.40/104.57 rests relatively close by, should buying fail to emerge from current demand.

H1 timeframe:

After retesting the underside of 105.50 resistance during early trade in Europe, a subsequent decline eventually took hold, rupturing 105.24 support and testing the 50.0% level (green) at 105.05 (ahead of the 105 level). For those who follow the RSI oscillator will note the indicator is producing mild bullish divergence right now.

A particularly interesting area to be aware of south of 105 is demand at 105.72/105.84. This is a zone where an important decision was made to break above 105.

Structures of Interest:

Intraday buying from 105/105.05 on the H1 (50.0% level), knowing H4 buyers recently greeted demand at 104.92/105.09, could draw price to H1 resistance at 105.24 during Asian trading today.

From the higher timeframes, nevertheless, daily price is on course to test monthly support at 104.62, therefore a 105 break to the downside on the H1 should not surprise, a move that may attract additional selling.

Modest buying may be seen out of H1 demand at 105.72/105.84, though at this stage, monthly support is likely to be targeted.

October 15th 2020: GBP Flirting with 1.30 Amid Reports of UK/EU Progress, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Although leaving trendline resistance taken from 2.1161 unopposed, the month of September sunk 3.4 percent by way of a bearish outside reversal candle. This advertises a potential trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191) retest.

In terms of trend, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Demand at 1.2645/1.2773 (and 200-day simple moving average at 1.2708) is an area worth highlighting, due to it being a location a decision was made to break the 1.2813 peak (June 10). Another area drawing attention is resistance at 1.3201.

RSI fans will also note the value recently met with 55.00 resistance.

H4 timeframe:

Price readers on the H4 timeframe will recognise the pair staged a stronger-than-anticipated rebound from demand at 1.2836/1.2881 on Wednesday, a clear drop-base-rally configuration. Late US, though, mildly pared gains off session peaks at 1.3064.

Above recent highs re-opens the option of a retest at supply from 1.3116/1.3160 (prior demand).

H1 timeframe:

Support confluence around the 1.29 level (composed of a trendline support [prior resistance – 1.3007] and a 78.6% Fib level at 1.2894), albeit suffering a dip to lows at 1.2863, held price higher on Wednesday.

H1 finished the session receding from session highs, now poised to retest the widely watched 1.30 level and aligning 100-period simple moving average.

Structures of Interest:

A 1.30 retest, given SMA confluence and daily price demonstrating room to advance, could tempt buyers to make an entrance, with 1.31 targeted (fixed nearby the underside of H4 supply at 1.3116).

October 15th 2020: GBP Flirting with 1.30 Amid Reports of UK/EU Progress, FP Markets

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  • October 15th 2020: GBP Flirting with 1.30 Amid Reports of UK/EU Progress, FP Markets
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