November 26th 2020: Dollar Bulls on the Backfoot Ahead of Thanksgiving

November 26th 2020: Dollar Bulls on the Backfoot Ahead of Thanksgiving, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the break of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) in July, buyers and sellers have since gone toe-to-toe around the upper section of supply from 1.1857/1.1352. Though this argues additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641), a dip to retest the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support) is also still on the table.

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.4940 is engulfed (May 2 high [2011]).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

The trend is clearly to the upside on this chart, with price working with the upper limit of a falling wedge correction (pattern) between 1.2011 and 1.1612 since September – some may interpret this arrangement as a descending triangle pattern. Supply at 1.2012/1.1937 also remains a key zone to be watchful of on the daily chart, active since May 2018.

RSI fans will also note the value remains above 50.00, currently probing the upper region of an ascending channel.

H4 timeframe:

Supply at 1.1928/1.1902 (prior demand) is under fire, in response to GBP/USD bulls extending gains Wednesday, aided by support from 1.1890. Clearance of 1.1928/1.1902 throws light on supply at 1.2026/1.1992, fastened to the top edge of daily supply at 1.2012/1.1937.

H1 timeframe:

Although not the neatest of breaks, 1.19 relinquished position on Wednesday as resistance, a level withstanding upside attempts since early September. Maintaining a presence above 1.19 today throws light on 1.1950 resistance and resistance from 1.1966.

Observed levels:

H4 supply at 1.1928/1.1902 failing to deliver much yesterday, and monthly price trading strongly around ruptured supply at 1.1857/1.1352, may stir H1 breakout buyers above 1.19 to approach 1.1950 resistance. However, cautious buyers will note possible resistance forming from the lower ledge of daily supply at 1.1937.

November 26th 2020: Dollar Bulls on the Backfoot Ahead of Thanksgiving, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following a mild correction that addressed the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply), buyers have so far responded well. Up by 4.8 percent in November, buyers appear to be free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Supply at 0.7345/0.7287, an area that’s remained in the frame since November 9, resigned Tuesday, with Wednesday retesting the zone and finishing significantly off session lows.

Supply at 0.7453/0.7384 is next in line, extended from August 2018.

The RSI indicator continues to consolidate beneath overbought space, following the removal of 52.00 resistance at the beginning of November.

H4 timeframe:

The H4 chart reveals price hovering around the upper boundary of an ascending triangle between resistance at 0.7340 and trendline support from 0.7221.

Resistance at 0.7383 is on the radar, with a break exposing September peaks at 0.7413.

H1 timeframe:

In a fashion similar to the H4 chart, an ascending triangle formation is also underway on the H1 chart between 0.7367 resistance and trendline support from 0.7311.

Overturning 0.7367 shines light on the 0.74 level and the 0.7423 take-profit target (derived from the ascending triangle).

Observed levels:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Monthly price flexing its muscle off demand at 0.7029/0.6664, H4 action breaking ascending triangle resistance at 0.7340 and H1 threatening to break its ascending triangle resistance (0.7367) gestures a bullish atmosphere as we head into the second half of the week.

November 26th 2020: Dollar Bulls on the Backfoot Ahead of Thanksgiving, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

November, as you can see, is working with the lower edge of the aforesaid pattern, shaped by way of a doji candle.

104.62 ceding ground shines light on demand from 96.41/100.81, followed by trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit level at 91.04 (red).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Supply from 106.33/105.78 and trendline resistance (111.68) are prominent areas north of price.

Light falls on demand at 100.68/101.85, drawn from September 2016, if sellers make a push.

RSI enthusiasts will note the unit has remained under 52.00 resistance since July.

H4 timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Despite leaving demand from 103.04/103.58 uncontested, extended from March 2020, upside recently gained speed and unseated resistance at 104.11. As you can see, this invites both 104.11 retest and a continuation rally to supply at 105.41/105.15.

H1 timeframe:

Volatility diminished considerably Wednesday, slowly grinding beneath 104.50. Mild support, however, emerged off 104.27 heading into the US session, although buying levelled off ahead of 104.50 by way of shooting star candlestick patterns.

The 100-period simple moving average at 104.17 is on show beneath 104.27, as is the 104 level. Above 104.50 shifts interest to Tuesday’s high at 104.76 and the 105 level.

Observed levels:

Difficult market to read right now, technically speaking.

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Monthly price juggling with descending triangle support at 104.62 and room for daily price to hone in on trendline resistance (111.68), as well as H4 buyers offered space to rally as far north as H4 supply at 105.41/105.15, could have H1 buyers regain 104.50 to approach 105.

November 26th 2020: Dollar Bulls on the Backfoot Ahead of Thanksgiving, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

November trading higher by 3.4 percent seats trendline resistance (2.1161) in the line of fire on the monthly chart.

In terms of trend, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Since crossing paths with demand at 1.2645/1.2773 and 200-day simple moving average in late September, GBP/USD has displayed a gradual interest to the upside and generated an AB=CD pullback concluding at 1.3392. The pattern also forms just ahead of the 1.3483 September peak, which if a break comes to pass will confirm the current uptrend on this timeframe (since early 2020).

RSI followers will see the line has produced a series of higher highs and lows since late September, on course to welcome overbought conditions.

H4 timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.3402/1.3368 moved into position at the beginning of the week and remains in the frame. Removal of the aforesaid supply targets peaks at 1.3483 underlined on the daily chart.

It should also be noted an early rising wedge is currently in the process of forming between 1.3105/1.3313. Fracturing its lower edge brings light to 1.3182 support.

H1 timeframe:

Interestingly, in conjunction with the H4 timeframe, H1 is also establishing an ascending wedge between 1.3263/1.3380 (the lower edge is supported by the 100-period simple moving average).

Additional levels to be mindful of on this chart are the 1.34/33 barriers.

Observed levels:

Monthly price displays scope to marginally extend gains, while the daily timeframe tests resistance by way of an AB=CD formation at 1.3392. This may, despite lacklustre selling of late, provide sellers enough fuel to draw lower from H4 supply at 1.3402/1.3368.

Taking the above on board, H1 sellers may reject 1.34 resistance and puncture the lower rim of its ascending wedge to approach 1.33.

November 26th 2020: Dollar Bulls on the Backfoot Ahead of Thanksgiving, FP Markets

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • November 26th 2020: Dollar Bulls on the Backfoot Ahead of Thanksgiving, FP Markets
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