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November 25th 2020: Upbeat Risk Sentiment Weighs on Greenback; DXY Below Daily Support at 92.26

November 25th 2020: Upbeat Risk Sentiment Weighs on Greenback; DXY Below Daily Support at 92.26, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the break of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) in July, buyers and sellers have since gone toe-to-toe around the upper section of supply from 1.1857/1.1352. Though this argues additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641), a dip to retest the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support) is also still on the table.

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.4940 is engulfed (May 2 high [2011]).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.2012/1.1937 remains a key zone to be watchful of on the daily chart, active since May 2018.

The trend remains to the upside, with price currently working with an early falling wedge correction (pattern) between 1.2011 and 1.1612 since September – some may interpret this arrangement as a descending triangle pattern. You may also note recent price is testing the mettle of the upper boundary of the falling wedge.

In terms of support beyond the aforesaid pattern, 1.1553 and 1.1495 offer prominent levels.

RSI fans will also note the value remains above 50.00, though rooted within the upper region of an ascending channel.

H4 timeframe:

There’s not really much new to report from the H4 chart as we head into Wednesday, as buyers and sellers squared off below supply at 1.1928/1.1902 (prior demand), following Monday’s recovery from support between 1.1815/1.1795 on Monday (blue).

H1 timeframe:

After processing peaks at 1.1894 mid-way through London Tuesday, by way of a shooting star candlestick pattern, the market watched H1 drill through the 100-period simple moving average to retest a familiar area of demand at 1.1836/1.1846.

With buyers welcoming the aforesaid demand, the day ended testing earlier highs, arranged just ahead of the 1.19 level. Upside momentum also hauled the RSI to within close range of overbought space.

Observed levels:

 

  • Monthly buyers holding gains around the upper side of monthly supply from 1.1857/1.1352.

 

  • Falling wedge pattern seen on the daily chart between 1.2011/1.1612 – price currently testing the upper limit.

 

  • H4 seen drifting below supply at 1.1928/1.1902 (an area that encases the daily falling wedge line and is positioned just beneath daily supply at 1.2012/1.1937).

 

  • H1 is nearing 1.19 resistance – marks lower edge of H4 supply at 1.1928/1.1902.

 

H4 supply at 1.1928/1.1902 failing to deliver much downside at the beginning of this week, and monthly price trading strongly around a ruptured supply may stir H1 buyers to dethrone 1.19 today and attempt to discover higher levels. This would also likely form a daily close above the daily falling wedge pattern, creating a bullish signal.

November 25th 2020: Upbeat Risk Sentiment Weighs on Greenback; DXY Below Daily Support at 92.26, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following a mild correction that addressed the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply), buyers have so far responded well. Up by 4.8 percent in November, buyers appear to be free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Supply at 0.7345/0.7287, an area that’s remained in the frame since November 9, relinquished its position Tuesday. Robust buying toppled the zone and highlighted neighbouring supply at 0.7453/0.7384, extended from August 2018.

The RSI indicator continues to consolidate beneath overbought space, following the removal of 52.00 resistance at the beginning of November.

H4 timeframe:

0.7340 resistance stood aside Tuesday, not only fuelling a peak of 0.7367 but also forming a breakout above the upper side of an ascending triangle between the aforesaid resistance and trendline support from 0.7221. Ascending triangles are often viewed as continuation patterns.

Resistance at 0.7383 is on the radar.

H1 timeframe:

H1 acquired position above 0.7350 resistance into the closing stages of Tuesday’s session, boosted amid strong risk appetite. Technically speaking, buyers could continue to climb today, with 0.74 targeted.

Observed levels:

Monthly flexing its muscle off demand at 0.7029/0.6664, daily price preparing to possibly drive into supply at 0.7453/0.7384 and H4 (ascending triangle resistance at 0.7340) and H1 (0.7350) recently overrunning resistances puts across a bullish case, with intraday buyers perhaps pursuing H4 resistance at 0.7383 and 0.74 on the H1.

November 25th 2020: Upbeat Risk Sentiment Weighs on Greenback; DXY Below Daily Support at 92.26, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

November, as you can see, is working with the lower edge of the aforesaid pattern, shaped by way of a doji candle.

104.62 ceding ground shines light on demand from 96.41/100.81, followed by trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit level at 91.04 (red).

Daily timeframe:

Supply from 106.33/105.78 and trendline resistance (111.68) are prominent areas north of price.

Light falls on demand at 100.68/101.85, drawn from September 2016, if sellers make a push.

RSI enthusiasts will note the unit has remained under 52.00 resistance since July.

H4 timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Despite leaving demand from 103.04/103.58 uncontested, extended from March 2020, upside recently gained speed and unseated resistance at 104.11. As you can see, this invites buyers to supply at 105.41/105.15.

H1 timeframe:

Trendline support (103.70) recently made an entrance after price dipped through 104.50 support off session peaks at 104.76.

Reclaiming 104.50 to the upside today throws light on a possible run to 105.

Observed levels:

Monthly price juggling with descending triangle support at 104.62; room for daily price to hone in on trendline resistance (111.68), as well as H4 buyers offered space to rally as far north as H4 supply at 105.41/105.15 could have H1 buyers regain 104.50 off trendline support to approach 105.

November 25th 2020: Upbeat Risk Sentiment Weighs on Greenback; DXY Below Daily Support at 92.26, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

November trading higher by 3.2 percent seats trendline resistance (2.1161) in the line of fire on the monthly chart.

In terms of trend, nevertheless, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Since crossing paths with demand at 1.2645/1.2773 and 200-day simple moving average in late September, GBP/USD has displayed a gradual interest to the upside.

Taking on higher levels targets the 1.3483 September peak, with a break to confirm the current uptrend on this timeframe (since early 2020).

RSI followers will see the line has produced a series of higher highs and lows since late September, on course to welcome overbought conditions.

H4 timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.3402/1.3368 moved into position at the beginning of the week and was retested again Tuesday.

Strengthened on the back of a 127.2% Fib projection level at 1.3366, sellers continue to guard this zone. Removal of the aforesaid supply targets peaks at 1.3483 underlined on the daily chart.

It should also be noted an early ascending wedge is currently in the process of forming between 1.3105/1.3313.

H1 timeframe:

1.33 served well as support Tuesday, attached just ahead of the 100-period simple moving average. 1.34 rests as resistance to the upside, while navigating beneath 1.33 shines light on 1.32 due to the lack of obvious demand to the left of price in this area.

Observed levels:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Monthly and daily timeframes display scope to probe higher, with the 1.3483 September peak eyed (joined by monthly trendline resistance).

This places upside pressure on sellers from H4 supply at 1.3402/1.3368, and could have H1 buyers off 1.33 extend upside today to test the resolve of 1.34.

November 25th 2020: Upbeat Risk Sentiment Weighs on Greenback; DXY Below Daily Support at 92.26, FP Markets

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  • November 25th 2020: Upbeat Risk Sentiment Weighs on Greenback; DXY Below Daily Support at 92.26, FP Markets
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