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November 11th 2020: GBP Outperforms Despite Lacklustre Market Across the Board

November 11th 2020: GBP Outperforms Despite Lacklustre Market Across the Board, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the break of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) in July, buyers and sellers have since been squaring off around the upper section of supply from 1.1857/1.1352. Whilst this argues additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641), a dip to retest the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support) is still on the table.

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.4940 is engulfed (May 2 high [2011]).

Daily timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

After discovering strong support off September’s low at 1.1612 (confirmed by RSI bullish divergence) last week, EUR/USD encountered opposition Monday ahead of supply at 1.2012/1.1937 (extended from May 2018), with Tuesday offering little in terms of directional cues.

Extending Monday’s corrective slide shines light back on September’s low, together with support close by at 1.1553.

Despite Monday’s correction and Tuesday’s indecisive posture, RSI fans will note we remain hovering above 50.00.

H4 timeframe:

A relatively sharp spike to lows at 1.1780 forged a near-test of demand at 1.1760/1.1779 Tuesday, an area fastened a few pips above fresh demand planted at 1.1711/1.1746. This is an important zone, given it was here a decision was made to dethrone last Wednesday’s high at 1.1770.

North of 1.1760/1.1779, nonetheless, traders will likely note supply from 1.1928/1.1902 (prior demand).

H1 timeframe:

By way of two H1 candles, morning trading in London on Tuesday observed a whipsaw through 1.18, a move that encouraged fresh bids off trendline support (prior resistance – 1.1880), just ahead of demand at 1.1764/1.1776. US trading, albeit holding above 1.18 support, was unable to maintain a bullish course, hampered by the 100-period simple moving average at 1.1824.

1.1850 resistance lies overhead if buyers take back the wheel, with a break uncovering the 1.19 handle, the level which held back buyers at the beginning of the week.

Observed levels:

The rebound from H1 trendline support producing enough energy to topple 1.18 resistance, together with the near-test of H4 demand at 1.1760/1.1779 and lack of higher timeframe resistances nearby, could forge additional bullish sentiment today, with at least 1.1850 resistance targeted.

November 11th 2020: GBP Outperforms Despite Lacklustre Market Across the Board, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The months of September and October, as you can see, developed a mild correction and addressed the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply). Buyers have so far responded well from demand (up by 3.7 percent in November), free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, though, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Wrapping up Monday by way of a shooting star candlestick from supply at 0.7345/0.7287 (a rally-base-drop formation), as you can see, failed to provoke bearish follow-through moves on Tuesday.

Attention will be drawn to supply seated just above at 0.7453/0.7384, taken from August 2018, if buyers take hold. Demand fixed from 0.6964/0.7042, on the other hand, represents a reasonable target should sellers make a show.

The RSI indicator is seen approaching overbought territory after brushing aside resistance at 52.00.

H4 timeframe:

Following Monday’s whipsaw above supply at 0.7324/0.7282, testing resistance from 0.7340, this witnessed candle flow join hands with demand at 0.7253/0.7237 (prior supply) Tuesday, applied just ahead of support at 0.7210.

H1 timeframe:

Following on From Tuesday’s analysis, traders will note Monday’s volatility shaped a head and shoulder’s top pattern, with the peak (the head) formed off resistance at 0.7327 and a neckline drawn from 0.7267.

The break beneath the pattern’s neckline on Tuesday could fuel moves to the 0.72 region, the take-profit target (yellow), though to reach this far south, price must contend with nearby trendline support (0.6993) and the 100-period simple moving average.

It might interest some readers to note the RSI oscillator also rebounded from support at 42.48.

Observed levels:

Monthly price rebounding from demand at 0.7029/0.6664 is likely weighing on countertrend strategies off daily supply at 0.7345/0.7287.

H1 recently penetrating the head and shoulder’s neckline may eventually trigger an intraday bearish move to around 0.72, yet, as stated above, a collection of H1 and H4 supports will need to be taken before this occurs.

November 11th 2020: GBP Outperforms Despite Lacklustre Market Across the Board, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

Notably, November, up by 0.6 percent, is seen rebounding from the lower edge of the aforesaid pattern. However, 104.62 giving way shines light on demand from 96.41/100.81, followed by trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit level at 91.04 (red).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Thanks to Monday’s 2-percent advance, and Tuesday concluding off worst levels, supply at 106.33/105.78 and intersecting trendline resistance (111.68) is within close range. On top of this, RSI resistance at 57.00 is positioned a short distance from current action.

H4 timeframe:

Demand at 104.84/105.07 made an entrance in the early stages of Tuesday, following Monday’s intraday sell-off from supply at 105.79/105.57.

Hovering between the two areas as we head into Wednesday, zones of consideration outside of the aforesaid areas are supply at 105.98/105.80 and support from 104.11.

H1 timeframe:

Fastened to the underside of H4 demand at 104.84/105.07, H1 demand at 104.74/104.96 (set just above a 38.2% Fib level at 104.69) also made a show on Tuesday. Following a mild whipsaw through 105, H1 plotted a peak ahead of 105.50 resistance (just under resistance at 105.62) and subsequently entered into a narrow consolidation.

RSI movement is also seen extending its retracement slide from overbought territory at 86.43, a level not seen since June 2020.

Observed levels:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Monthly price could hold off the descending triangle support at 104.62, though buyers may find opposition from daily supply at 106.33/105.78 (and trendline resistance).

H4 and H1 timeframes also offer a somewhat directionless state. H4 loiters between supply/demand at 105.79/105.57- 104.84/105.07, and H1 flow is seen between demand at 104.74/104.96 and resistances at 105.62/50.

November 11th 2020: GBP Outperforms Despite Lacklustre Market Across the Board, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Leaving trendline resistance (2.1161) unopposed, the month of September fell 3.4 percent by way of a bearish outside reversal candle and snapped a three-month winning streak. This, despite November trading higher by 2.5 percent at the moment, advertises a possible dip to retest trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191).

In terms of trend, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Following Monday’s indecision candle at resistance from 1.3201, buyers shifted gears Tuesday, taking out resistance and rallying 0.8 percent to close near session highs. The fact sellers failed to retest demand at 1.2645/1.2773 on the previous correction from 1.3176 revealed a lack of commitment from sellers.

Going forward, the pathway north points to the 1.3483 September peak as possible resistance.

The RSI oscillator continues to extend off 47.00 support and is on course to cross paths with overbought territory.

H4 timeframe:

After abandoning resistance at 1.3182, Tuesday made its way to channel resistance (1.3176), surfacing just south of supply at 1.3320/1.3281 (and a collection of Fib studies around 1.3307).

H1 timeframe:

The upbeat tone heading into the London session on Tuesday led price action through 1.32, as well as supply at 1.3239/1.3199. US traders retesting (and holding) 1.3239/1.3199 signals buyers are preparing for a possible continuation move to supply at 1.3339/1.3322, located above the 1.33 level.

In terms of the RSI oscillator, we are seeing some bearish divergence form around the 60.00 range.

Observed levels:

 

  • Monthly reveals room to move higher until trendline resistance.

 

  • Daily, after crossing 1.3201 resistance, also shows room to reach the 1.3483 September peak. This is also in-line with the current uptrend on the daily timeframe, higher since March of this year.

 

  • H4 is testing channel resistance, sheltered under notable supply/Fib studies at 1.3320/1.3281.

 

  • H1, after retesting 1.3239/1.3199, could reach for 1.33.

 

Aside from H4, all timeframes analysed project further gains. With this being the case, another 1.3239/1.3199 retest on the H1 today could spark a bullish scene, with 1.33 targeted.

 November 11th 2020: GBP Outperforms Despite Lacklustre Market Across the Board, FP Markets

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  • November 11th 2020: GBP Outperforms Despite Lacklustre Market Across the Board, FP Markets
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