Note—Charts provided by Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

As we head into the closing stages of March, EUR/USD dipped a toe in 1.1857/1.1352 demand, currently lower by 2.5 percent.

A decisive rebound from the aforesaid demand shifts attention back to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641). Extending lower, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.

In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Monday, as you can see, put a cap on attempts to extend Friday’s recovery.

Assuming EUR/USD continues to navigate terrain south of the 200-day simple moving average, currently circling 1.1859, Quasimodo support from 1.1688 is likely targeted.

As aired in Monday’s technical briefing, traders may recall the RSI establishing early bullish divergence, with upside moves eyeing trendline resistance, taken from the peak 76.00.

H4 timeframe:

The combination of Quasimodo support at 1.1779 and the double-top pattern’s take-profit target at 1.1774 (yellow)—albeit providing a moderate floor in the latter part of last week—appears to be hanging by a thread.

Clearance of said supports shines the technical spotlight on demand from 1.1681/1.1725. Should buyers regain consciousness, resistance at 1.1818 and neighbouring trendline resistance, etched from the high 1.2242, could welcome price movement.

H1 timeframe:

1.18 echoed possible resistance late Friday, action welcomed by sellers on Monday. Note 1.18 is now sharing chart space with the 100-period simple moving average.

Monday probed Thursday’s low at 1.1761 and discovered modest support. However, logical support resides around demand at 1.1727/1.1744, an area fastened just ahead of H4 demand mentioned above at 1.1681/1.1725.

RSI action was reasonably content Monday, fluctuating around the lower side of the 50.00 centreline.

Observed levels:

Daily, H4 and H1 timeframes emphasise bearish intentions, targeting at least 1.1727/1.1744 demand on the H1, closely followed by H4 demand at 1.1681/1.1725, which houses daily support at 1.1688.

While the above could spark short-term selling, longer-term monthly demand at 1.1857/1.1352 remains in play. Therefore, assuming a sell-off ensues, a bullish scenario could form within the aforesaid H4 demand.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s interesting was February came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776), sheltered under supply from 0.8303/0.8082.

As March draws to an end, the pair trades lower by 0.9 percent, probing February’s lows. Should sellers take the reins going forward, demand is in view at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply).

With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

Last week’s doji morning star pattern forming around 0.7563, as evident from the daily chart, failed to inspire buyers on Monday and resulted in a doji indecision candle taking shape.

Upstream, trendline support-turned resistance is visible, pencilled in from the low 0.5506.

Lower on the curve, demand from 0.7453/0.7384 is seen (previous supply)—dovetailing closely with a 100% Fib extension at 0.7465 and a 161.8% Fib projection at 0.7389.

Out of the RSI oscillator, the value left oversold space unchallenged last week and rotated higher to reclaim 40.00+ status.

H4 timeframe:

Unchanged from previous analysis.

Quasimodo support at 0.7592 made an entrance in the latter half of last week, prompting upside. Monday, as touched on above, left behind a muted tone around the 0.7650ish neighbourhood.

Increased interest to the upside swings the pendulum in favour of a test of supply from 0.7696/0.7715, an active zone in play since late January (plotted just south of the 38.2% Fib level at 0.7731 and a 61.8% Fib level from 0.7741).

Failure to extend recovery gains could lead AUD/USD under 0.7592 to another layer of Quasimodo support at 0.7529.

H1 timeframe:

Short-term action out of the H1 chart witnessed buyers and sellers square off around support at 0.7622, aided by the 100-period simple moving average.

Should buyers dominate off the aforementioned support, the 0.77 figure calls for attention, a psychological level anchored just beneath supply plotted at 0.7716/0.7707. Failure to push from 0.7622 calls on 0.76 as possible support, with a break unmasking demand at 0.7546/0.7555.

The view from the RSI reveals the value elbowed beneath trendline support on Monday, drawn from the low 21.00. The indicator subsequently tested the reception around the 50.00 centreline.

Observed levels:

Largely unchanged from previous analysis.

From the monthly timeframe, chart studies point to a bearish narrative. On the other side of the field, the daily timeframe forming a doji morning star (a bullish candlestick pattern) unlocks the possibility of buying, despite Monday’s lacklustre performance.

In conjunction with the daily timeframe’s technical position, H4 exhibits scope to approach resistance from 0.7696/0.7715, and H1 holds off support at 0.7622 with room to take aim at 0.77. Note the big figure shares space with the H4 resistance, therefore should a short-term bullish phase materialise and reaches 0.77, bearish pressure could emerge.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March, up by 3.1 percent, is shaking hands with descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66. A forceful break here highlights 126.10/122.66 supply.

To the downside, support inhabits 101.70.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

Quasimodo resistance-turned support at 109.38 served buyers well on Monday, delivering a spirited move to session tops. Price action traders are now likely monitoring supply at 110.94/110.29, an area circling the monthly descending resistance.

With respect to trend, 2021 has pointed to the upside. Also of interest is price has traded positively above the 200-day simple moving average since late February.

Based on the RSI oscillator, the value continues to explore overbought space, threatening to challenge resistance at 83.02.

H4 timeframe:

Monday had the currency pair bottom a pip north of support at 109.36, generating enough enthusiasm to take on supply at 110.08/109.54 (housing June tops at 109.85 [represents the head of the Quasimodo formation on the daily timeframe]).

Above the aforesaid supply brings light to daily supply underlined above at 110.94/110.29.

H1 timeframe:

Trendline support, taken from the low 108.46, made an entrance heading into the early hours of Europe Monday. As you can see, this has thrown light on the 110 figure.

For the RSI oscillator, we can see the value hovering within touching distance of overbought space and trendline support-turned resistance, pencilled in from the low 33.14.

Observed levels:

From the monthly timeframe, traders are likely expecting sellers to make an appearance. However, having seen room on the daily timeframe to reach for supply at 110.94/110.29, additional upside could still be in the offing.

The above, of course, places a question mark on H4 supply at 110.08/109.54, and sponsors follow-through buying off H1 trendline support to at least 1.10.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018.

Contained within February’s range, March is on track to snap a five-month winning streak and form what candlestick fans call an inside pattern—represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility. A breakout lower tends to be considered a bearish signal.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Monday fashioned a clear-cut shooting star candle formation (bearish signal), as sterling ended the day on the backfoot against the US dollar.

Regarding technical structure, Quasimodo support at 1.3609 calls for attention to the downside, while upriver we can see trendline support-turned resistance, extended from the low 1.1409.

The view out of the RSI shows the value testing space just south of familiar resistance between 46.21 and 49.16.

H4 timeframe:

Technical framework out of the H4 chart reveals price crossed swords with ascending resistance yesterday, taken from the low 1.3778, and moulded a shooting star candle formation (bearish signal) before pressing lower. Note the ascending resistance converged with a 50.0% retracement at 1.3834 and nearby resistance at 1.3852.

The 127.2% Fib extension at 1.3649 is visible to the downside, pinned just under last Thursday’s low at 1.3670 (Quasimodo support is also noted at 1.3611).

H1 timeframe:

Early London Monday observed price snap through 1.38 offers, likely tripping a truckload of buy-stops. This fuelled moves into offers around supply at 1.3851/1.3833, which held price and saw the unit reclaim 1.38 to the downside during US trading.

1.3750 support, along with the 100-period simple moving average, are next on tap to the downside, with subsequent selling to reignite interest in 1.37 and trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.4001.

Crossing below the 50.00 centreline on the RSI yesterday implies momentum could continue south, targeting the oversold area, joined by a trendline resistance-turned support, drawn from the peak 67.03.

Observed levels:

Should H1 drop through 1.3750 support, a short-term bearish theme may emerge, targeting the 1.37 neighbourhood. Defending 1.3750, on the other hand, signals 1.38 could be tested.

Against the backdrop of lower timeframe action, yesterday’s daily shooting star has likely caught the eye of candlestick fans and could prompt downside movement, with daily Quasimodo support at 1.3609 targeted. This, of course, is also helped by the absence of support on the H4 until around 1.3650ish.

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