June 30th 2020: DXY Unchanged in a Quiet Start to the Week

June 30th 2020: DXY Unchanged in a Quiet Start to the Week, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912.

June extended gains to highs at 1.1422, though mid-month ran into opposition at the lower ledge of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).

With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).

It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.

As you can see, the aforesaid Fib targets have yet to be met.

H4 timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

The second half of last week had trendline support (1.0780), as well as demand fixed from 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply), derail downside attempts.

So far, buyers have made their presence felt from the aforesaid areas, with a channel formation in sight as the next available resistance (1.1422), followed by 1.1348.

Failure to uphold current structure could result in another layer of demand making a show at 1.1115/1.1139, an area sharing space with channel support (1.1168).

H1 timeframe:

H1 formed demand at 1.1237/1.1247 in early trade Monday, a decision point to dethrone 1.1250 and the 100-period simple moving average.

What’s more, heading into US trading, a rally-base-drop supply formed at 1.1288/1.1278, with downside momentum out of the base toppling the aforesaid areas.

As of writing, buyers and sellers are squaring off at the underside of 1.1237/1.1247, which could, combined with 1.1250 and the 100-period simple moving average, be sufficient to pull price to demand at 1.1181/1.1202 (and the 1.12 level).

Structures of Interest:

Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 emphasises a bearish tone in this market, while the daily chart reminds traders there’s scope for a drop to the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106.

The H4 timeframe shows signs of rebounding from trendline support (1.0780), though H1 is currently retesting supply at 1.1237/1.1247 (prior demand). The latter is in a fortunate position, owing to the higher timeframes indicating lower prices could be in the offing.

June 30th 2020: DXY Unchanged in a Quiet Start to the Week, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

May’s extension, as well as June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a somewhat vulnerable tone at the moment, despite the base benefitting from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).

Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

After June 11 overpowered support at 0.6931, the base has proved reasonably worthy resistance throughout June, with last week modestly swinging lower from the base.

Monday ended indecisively, closing by way of a doji candlestick formation.

In case of a break to the upside, two trendline resistances inhabit territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671). Support at 0.6755 also remains in position to the downside, with a break throwing light on the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6665, a dynamic value in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.

H4 timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Last Wednesday’s tumble proposes the prospect of a double-top pattern forming off 0.6977, with a neckline at 0.6807 (blue arrows).

However, breaking the neckline, albeit a bearish signal, entails overriding demand at 0.6773/0.6814, a familiar area boasting a connection with a 38.2% Fib level at 0.6808. The next demand area available south of here rests at 0.6695/0.6664 (prior supply).

H1 timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Last Thursday had 0.6850 welcome price action and, as you can see, has remained supportive since. Also bolstering the base is a trendline support (0.6776), making its entrance Friday. Above here, the 100-period simple moving average at 0.6882 is seen as possible resistance, along with the 0.69 level.

Demand at 0.6813/0.6824 is visible as the next accessible base of support under 0.6850, though the area is balancing on precarious ground given 0.68 could act as a magnet to price.

Structures of Interest:

As aired in Monday’s weekly analysis, monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and its associated trendline resistance, in conjunction with daily resistance at 0.6931, may eventually exert downside pressure. Due to the above, daily support at 0.6755 could make a show.

Also put forward in Monday’s report, H4 demonstrates scope to drop into demand at 0.6773/0.6814, prompting a potential break of 0.6850 on the H1 to demand at 0.6813/0.6824 (located around the upper edge of H4 demand). However, as highlighted above, H1 demand is susceptible to a whipsaw into 0.68.

June 30th 2020: DXY Unchanged in a Quiet Start to the Week, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remained subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98, with June also on track to end indecisively.

Areas outside of the noted triangle pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

USD/JPY came out swinging from demand at 105.70/106.66 last week, putting forward a bullish inside candle pattern. Monday extended gains, taking aim at the 200-day simple moving average around 108.37.

Dethroning current demand, on the other hand, possibly leads price to nearby support at 105.01, with a break uncovering demand at 100.68/101.85.

H4 timeframe:

After two trendline supports (106.58/107.62) made a show Friday, with price action chalking up a relatively spirited recovery, Monday’s extension drew the pair into supply at 107.51/107.76 (prior demand), marginally whipsawing the upper boundary and shining light on resistance at 108.09.

If we fold over from here, demand at 107.03/107.28 is likely to enter the fray.

H1 timeframe:

Leaving 107 unchallenged, Monday gained traction heading into the US session and overran 107.50, consequently crossing paths with supply at 107.86/107.67. This is an area not only fastened to the upper border of H4 supply at 107.51/107.76, it boasts additional resistance in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 107.83 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 107.75.

As of writing, price action appears set to revisit 107.50 as support, with a break perhaps unmasking trendline support (106.07).

Structures of Interest:

Daily price exhibits a healthy position out of demand at 105.70/106.66 at the moment, with the possibility of lifting the currency pair back up to the 200-day simple moving average at 108.37.

While H4 and H1 timeframes show supply in play, 107.50 (H1) represents support, as does H4 demand at 107.03/107.28.

On account of the above notes, H4 demand stands in a favourable position, perhaps enough to stir a rebound and approach H4 resistance at 108.09 and the 200-day SMA at 108.37.

June 30th 2020: DXY Unchanged in a Quiet Start to the Week, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Support at 1.1904/1.2235 and long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) remain clear structure on the monthly timeframe, with the latter so far prompting a notable upper shadow this month shaped by way of a gravestone doji candlestick pattern.

Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008, placing 1.1904/1.2235 in a vulnerable position.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Thanks to Wednesday’s bearish outside day, and additional downside on Friday and yesterday, demand at 1.2192/1.2361 re-entered play. This, as underscored in recent analysis, is an area not only fastened to the top edge of monthly support, it is also considered the decision point to break 1.2647 (April 14 high).

1.2235 (black level), the top edge of monthly support, will likely be a watched base within the aforesaid demand for a possible reversal.

H4 timeframe

Since topping at supply from 1.2851/1.2805 early June, the pair has been in the process of constructing a bullish three-drive pattern that completes within the parapets of demand from 1.2231/1.2279, at a 127.2% Fib ext. level marked at 1.2239.

Demand at 1.2304/1.2343 was dethroned Monday, with price greeting 1.2231/1.2279. As you can see, though, 1.2239 remains open.

H1 timeframe:

Early Europe witnessed H1 mildly whipsaw through trendline resistance (1.2537) and challenge supply at 1.2415/1.2386 (1.24 is seen within). The impulsive decline observed following this was reasonably impressive, a move which took 1.23 and came within a hair of 1.2250, whilst also pulling the RSI value into oversold terrain.

Renewed buying came about heading into US lunch, with price recently retaking 1.23 and throwing light back on trendline resistance.

Structures of Interest:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Monthly price has eyes for the top edge of support at 1.2235, located within the lower section of daily demand at 1.2192/1.2361.

1.2235 on the monthly chart also coincides with 1.2239 on the H4 timeframe, our three-drive pattern. This combination likely remains appealing, offering attractive confluence to work with for a possible buying opportunity.

June 30th 2020: DXY Unchanged in a Quiet Start to the Week, FP Markets

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • June 30th 2020: DXY Unchanged in a Quiet Start to the Week, FP Markets
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