July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84

July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm. This prompted an extension in June to highs at 1.1422, adding 1.2% despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).

Interestingly, July is currently crossing paths with the aforesaid trendline resistance.

With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited lower peaks and troughs since 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).

It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.

After touching 1.1168 (June 19), a mild bid has been observed, which, as you can see, recently gathered traction and retested the aforesaid PRZ. Following Wednesday’s shooting star pattern, considered a bearish signal among candlestick traders, Thursday ended lower after the DXY staged a healthy recovery off daily support at 95.84.

H4 timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.1470/1.1447 made an entrance in recent trading, an area drawn from February 2019. Containing sufficient fuel to drive things back into the ascending channel between 1.1185/1.1345, Thursday welcomed a retest at channel resistance followed by a downward move.

Holding under channel resistance today has demand at 1.1324/1.1345 on the radar as the next point of consideration, with a break here unmasking neighbouring channel support.

H1 timeframe:

Dipping from peaks just ahead of the 1.1450 resistance, we took orders from 1.14 and landed things at an area of local confluence, made up of demand at 1.1361/1.1377, channel support (1.1378) and the 100-period simple moving average. Recent action reveals bullish interest in the aforesaid area, which could ultimately force a retest at the underside of 1.14.

Below demand, technical traders will be watching 1.1350 support and another base of demand coming in from 1.1323/1.1338.

Structures of Interest:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, neighbouring long-term trendline resistance, the daily PRZ between 1.1462/1.1395 and H4 holding things under supply from 1.1470/1.1447 and channel resistance puts across a robust ceiling in this market.

H1 demand at 1.1361/1.1377 faces considerable higher timeframe pressure. Though with intraday buyers showing intent from the zone right now, this could be enough to draw 1.14 into the frame for potential selling opportunities, in line with the bigger picture.

July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in July, particularly as intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) currently demonstrates signs of weakening.

Regarding the market’s primary trend, however, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

AUD/USD ousted resistance at 0.6931 in recent moves, with the latter now featured as support.

The break to the upside shifted focus towards two nearby trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), levels coming within touching distance on Wednesday. Thursday, as you can see, curved southbound and snapped a two-day winning streak, placing attention back on 0.6931.

Moves under 0.6931 has support at 0.6755 in sight, positioned ahead of the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6679.

H4 timeframe:

Wednesday, as you can see, engaged supply at 0.7058/0.7029, an active zone since the beginning of the year.

With buyers taking a step back, sellers appear to be working towards support at 0.6926, which happens to intersect with trendline support (0.6776). Traders will note the aforesaid support also forms a close connection to daily support at 0.6931.

H1 timeframe:

Thursday, following a whipsaw above 0.70, dropped through the 100-period simple moving average, shining light on 0.6950 support.

Yesterday also left behind a supply zone at 0.6999/0.6983.

Structures of Interest:

While monthly price reveals the possibility of added upside, daily, H4 and H1 timeframes are tipped for more under performance until reconnecting with at least 0.6950 support on the H1 and daily support at 0.6931.

As a result, a retest at H1 supply from 0.6999/0.6983 could come to realisation today and provide intraday sellers an entry point into the market.

July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

April and May were pretty uneventful, with June also wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern.

Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Demand at 105.70/106.66 continues to remain in focus on the daily timeframe. Although a reasonably hardwearing zone since early May, buyers appear to be lacking spirit. The previous reaction on June 23, as you can see, failed to reach the 200-day simple moving average at 108.36 before rotating lower, emphasising buyer weakness.

Below current demand re-opens the risk of a return to support at 105.01.

H4 timeframe:

Recent developments on the H4 timeframe observed Thursday rupture channel resistance (108.16) and come within a stone’s throw away from testing supply at 107.60/107.42, an area which if breached may see price work its way towards peaks at around 107.77.

Another possible scenario worth pencilling in is a retest at the recently broken channel resistance as support.

H1 timeframe:

The pair’s recovery Thursday powered through 107, the 100-period simple moving average, supply at 107.30/107.23 and also drew the RSI value into overbought waters.

Price calmed north of the supply at highs from 107.40 and is, as of writing, retesting the base as demand.

Trendline support (106.66), as well as the 100-period simple moving average, can be seen as the next support points should we push through 107.30/107.23 today.

Structures of Interest:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Daily demand at 105.70/106.66 recently re-joined the fight, albeit echoing a fragile tone.

H4 puts forward a channel resistance break, though with supply situated nearby at 107.60/107.42, upside momentum may slacken off.

H1 has price testing 107.30/107.23. This area demonstrates potential demand, having noted the H4 channel resistance break and active daily demand at 105.70/106.66.

July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Support at 1.1904/1.2235 and long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) offers clear structure to work with on the monthly timeframe at the moment, with the latter prompting a notable upper shadow in June.

Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008, placing 1.1904/1.2235 support in a vulnerable position.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Buyers and sellers continue to mingle below the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2696.

Several candlestick patterns have emerged this week, providing a mixture of bullish and bearish signals.

Demand at 1.2192/1.2361 remains in view, as does supply from 1.3021/1.2844, situated above the aforesaid simple moving average.

H4 timeframe:

After splitting channel support (1.2257) on the H4 timeframe, two core areas became available, demand at 1.2462/1.2506 and supply from 1.2720/1.2682. The former, as you can see, already made its presence known Tuesday, generously rebounding price by way of a bullish engulfing candle.

Additional areas of interest fall in at support from 1.2453 and peaks (red oval) around 1.2667, which may hinder price reaching the aforesaid supply zone.

H1 timeframe:

Technically, there’s not really much in terms of active supply and demand to work with on the H1 chart today.

Traders, however, will be watching the 1.26 level, the 100-period simple moving average, the 1.2550 support and 1.25 level. Additionally, an AB=CD harmonic pattern might complete at around 1.2494.

Structures of Interest:

Dethroning 1.2550 today (intraday traders may interpret this as a bearish signal) may throw light on the 1.25 level as a bearish target.

In addition to the above, 1.25, aligning with the upper boundary of H4 demand at 1.2506 and H1 AB=CD confluence at 1.2494, may deliver enough of a floor to encourage a recovery.

July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

 

 

 

 

  • July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets
    • Articles
    • Views
    AUTHOR

    FP Markets

    FP Markets is an Australian regulated broker established in 2005 offering access to CFDs across Forex, Indices, Commodities, Stocks & Cryptocurrencies on consistently tighter spreads in unparalleled trading conditions. FP Markets combines state-of-the-art technology with a huge selection of financial instruments to create a genuine broker destination for all types of traders.

    PROFILE
Start Trading with a Global Broker

Archives

Archives

Categories


Start
Trading
in Minutes

Open an account now


July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets Access +10,000 financial instruments
July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets Auto open & close positions
July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets News & economic calendar
July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets Technical indicator & charts
July 17th 2020: US Dollar Index Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak off Daily Support at 95.84, FP Markets Many more tools included

By supplying your email you agree to FP Markets privacy policy and receive future marketing materials from FP Markets. You can unsubscribe at any time.