Charts: Trading View

(Italics: previous analysis due to limited price change)

EUR/USD:

Weekly timeframe:

Since mid-November (2021), buyers and sellers have been squaring off around support at $1.1237-1.1281—made up of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1281 and a 1.618% Fibonacci projection from $1.1237. ‘Harmonic’ traders will acknowledge $1.1237 represents what’s known as an ‘alternate’ AB=CD formation.  

Any upside derived from current support will likely be capped by resistance at $1.1473-1.1583; navigating lower, on the other hand, throws light on Quasimodo support as far south as $1.0778.

Interestingly, the pair took out 2^nd November low (2020) at $1.1603 in late September (2021), suggesting the early stages of a downtrend on the weekly timeframe. This is reinforced by the monthly timeframe’s primary downtrend since mid-2008.

Daily timeframe:

Quasimodo support drawn from mid-June at $1.1213 (positioned beneath the weekly timeframe’s Fibonacci structure) made an entrance on 24^th November (2021) and remains committed, despite a passionless attempt from bulls. A run higher casts light on trendline resistance, extended from the high $1.2254. Establishing a decisive close beneath $1.1213, however, exposes support on the daily timeframe at $1.0991 (not visible on the screen).

The relative strength index (RSI) whipsawed above the 50.00 centreline in recent movement. Note that this level has delivered resistance since mid-October (2021). Overthrowing the latter helps validate interest to the upside from current price support (shown through average gains exceeding average losses), yet defending 50.00 connotes a bearish picture, in line with the immediate downtrend (since May 2021).

H4 timeframe: 

Europe’s shared currency was on the ropes against the US dollar Monday, influenced on the back of a USD bid (boosted by higher US Treasury yields) and technical selling.

Resistance at $1.1379—a level accompanied by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1381 and channel resistance (extended from the high $1,1342)—made an entrance early trade, with subsequent price movement navigating below support from $1.1307 and channel support, taken from the low $1.1235.

Downstream, the technical radar points to support at $1.1235, suggesting the unit may revisit breached supports and form resistance to tackle lower levels.

H1 timeframe:

One-sided selling emerged heading into US hours, unlocking a $1.32 breach to prime support at $1.1283-1.1291, alongside a 1.618% Fibonacci projection at $1.1283.

Breaking $1.32 bids and tripping sell-stop flow, along with price establishing support from the aforementioned prime support and Fibonacci ratio, gives rise to a possible stop-run scenario. This tends to bring about heavy buying (bids welcoming selling derived from sell-stops). A close back above $1.32 will help validate this concept.

Technicians will note the currency pair also registered oversold conditions, according to the relative strength index (RSI).

Observed Technical Levels:

Short term, H1 bulls are likely to react to a close back above $1.32. The caveat, of course, is H4 resistance stationed at $1.1307 could hinder bullish efforts. With this being the case, technical traders might wait and see if price holds $1.32 as support before committing.

AUD/USD:

Weekly timeframe:

Bulls embraced a modest offensive phase deep within prime support at $0.6968-0.7242, with resistance to target at $0.7501. Manoeuvring beneath $0.6968-0.7242 reveals support at $0.6673 and a 50.0% retracement at $0.6756.

Trend on the weekly timeframe has been higher since pandemic lows of $0.5506 (March 2020); however, the monthly timeframe has been entrenched within a large-scale downtrend since mid-2011.

Daily timeframe:

AUD/USD shorts surfaced on Monday, producing a near-full-bodied bearish candle ahead of resistance (made up of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7340, a 100% Fibonacci projection at $0.7315 and an ascending resistance, drawn from the low $0.7106).

North of the aforesaid resistances, two trendline resistances are seen (taken from highs $0.8007 and $0.7891). Continuation selling, however, shifts attention to support at $0.7021.

Momentum studies show the relative strength index (RSI) has, at the time of writing, failed to find a reception above the 50.00 centreline. Holding south of the latter emphasises a bearish setting (average losses exceeding average gains: negative momentum).

H4 timeframe:

Following a phase of slowing momentum—demonstrated by way of an ascending channel, drawn from $0.7196 and $0.7252—Aussie shorts (alongside other G10 FX currencies) governed control on Monday as the US dollar index (DXY) commanded attention from daily support at 95.86.

The breach of support at $0.7213 deserves attention (now marked as resistance), potentially setting the technical stage for further selling to as far south as support at $0.7097. Demand also resides around $0.7121-0.7166.

H1 timeframe:

In conjunction with the H4 timeframe’s support breach at $0.7213, shorter-term flow on the H1 timeframe elbowed under $0.72 and, in recent hours, retested the lower side of the level as resistance.

Additional downside from current price has demand at $0.7126-0.7141 and prime support at $0.7138-0.7151 to target (areas sitting within the walls of H4 demand mentioned above at $0.7121-0.7166).

The relative strength index (RSI) is currently set within oversold surroundings, a touch ahead of indicator support from 16.44.

Observed Technical Levels:

Based on H4 and H1 analysis, sellers appear to have the upper hand.

H4 support from $0.7213 giving way and H1 retesting the lower side of $0.72 echoes a short-term bearish theme, targeting H1 prime support at $0.7138-0.7151.

USD/JPY:

Weekly timeframe:

Heading into the close of 2021, USD/JPY action voyaged north of resistance from ¥114.38, a level capping upside since early 2017. A 1.272% Fibonacci projection from ¥116.09 is nearby, should buyers maintain position.

In terms of trend, the unit has been advancing since the beginning of 2021, welcoming a descending resistance breach, drawn from the high ¥118.61.

Daily timeframe:

Quasimodo resistance at ¥114.97 recently came under fire; Monday stood firm above the level, threatening to take on 2021 peaks at ¥115.52 and reach for Quasimodo resistance at ¥116.33.

RSI (relative strength index) analysis shows the value rebounded from support between 40.00 and 50.00 (indicator support often forms around the 50.00 area amid prolonged uptrends and operates as a ‘temporary’ oversold base) and is within striking distance of overbought territory.

H4 timeframe:

Since 17^th December, USD/JPY has remained firmly to the upside with sellers demonstrating little interest. Following the break of resistance at ¥114.50 (now marked as support), Monday touched gloves with resistance at ¥115.38 and a 1.272% Fibonacci projection from $115.32.

Beyond here, the 1.618% Fibonacci projection is in view at ¥115.91, followed by Quasimodo resistance at ¥116.35 (not visible on the screen).

H1 timeframe:

As evident from the H1 scale, ¥115 welcomed a retest going into US hours on Monday. North of current price, two Quasimodo resistances are seen at ¥115.48 and ¥115.39, whereas beneath ¥115, Quasimodo support is visible at ¥114.83.

The relative strength index (RSI) continues to respect support between 40.00 and 50.00. Experienced technicians will view this area as a ‘temporary’ oversold base, due to the prolonged up move in December. Monday’s rebound from oversold support, as you can see, places the indicator within reach of overbought levels.

Observed Technical Levels:

The higher timeframe cleared of resistance indicates further upside could be on the menu. H4 resistance from ¥115.38 and a 1.272% Fibonacci projection from $115.32, therefore, may be taken out, alongside H1 Quasimodo resistances from ¥115.48 and ¥115.39.

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