XJO WEEKLY    

Price structure: Bullish break

The XJO has broken above the critical support – resistance level of 8083, signalling strong bullish momentum. This breakout confirms buyer dominance, as the index has surpassed a key technical barrier that had the potential to cap upward moves. The expanded weekly range low to high further supports this view, indicating increased buying pressure and participation, with higher highs and sustained closes above the resistance zone. The 8083 level now acts as immediate support, Traders should watch for a retest of 8083 as support to confirm the breakout’s strength.

Additional support is likely above the prior consolidation zone around 7910 if a deeper pullback occurs.

Indicator: Relative strength 14: Positive upward momentum.

Relative strength has turned higher in line with the higher movement in the Index and crossed the key 50 level after 8 weeks below this critical level. Only further movements higher towards the 70 level can set a continuing bullish signal for price movements.
The RSI turning further lower to move below the 50 level, is a strong indication is for negative momentum to develop leading to Up Trend failure and further declines.

Comments last week:-  The a-b-c corrective movement has now reached completion. The 7632 level, which held firmly as support 3 weeks ago, proved to be a significant juncture in the market. This pivotal point has strengthened the foundation for potential upward momentum, underscoring its critical role in the overall price structure. As a key level in the recent analysis, 7632 will continue to serve as a vital reference in monitoring further price developments. Last week a Pivot point was confirmed, this is very Bullish for further gains with the close over the 7910 level. Sell in May and go away is yet to play out.

XJO DAILY  

Price structure:  Continuing Fluid movement

The XJO has demonstrated a robust bullish trend, decisively breaking above the critical resistance level of 8083, as noted previously. This breakout, an expanded weekly range, underscores strong buyer control and sustained upward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the price action further reinforces this bullish narrative, with price bars exhibiting a fluid movement higher and crossing the 200-day moving average (MA), a widely watched long-term trend indicator. The 200-day MA, positioned slightly above 8083, provides additional confluence.

Indicator:  Relative strength 14:  Neutral

The Relative strength Indicator (14) has moved above the important 50 level after the initial fall below the 30 level, the overall RSI trend shows upside momentum associated with the current price movement from the larger trading ranges within recovery. From a technical perspective, RSI moving over 50 and 60 often suggests an improvement in Bullish momentum, overall bearish volatility and selling pressure has subsided for now.

Comments last week The Daily chart of the XJO reveals a steady and fluid upward movement, reflecting consistent buying interest and positive momentum. However, despite this progress, the price continues to remain below the critical Weekly resistance level of 8083. This resistance represents a significant barrier, with previous price action suggesting strong selling pressure around this level. Until the XJO manages to break above 8083 convincingly, the upward trajectory may face challenges, and caution should be exercised in anticipating further gains. This juncture will be pivotal in determining whether the index can sustain its bullish outlook or encounter a potential reversal..

S&P 500 WEEKLY:  Bullish continuation

The S&P 500 weekly chart reflects a bullish trend as of the close last week, supported by strong price action, tech sector performance, and positive economic signals. The index is above key moving averages and significant level of 5670. Approaching resistance at 5853 price movements may see some early selling leading to consolidation around this level.

Volumes were average last week, not showing significant spikes that would confirm a climactic move. This supports a steady, controlled rally rather than an exhaustive one.

Indicator:  Relative strength 14.   

For bullish confirmation, a recovery back above the 50 level on the RSI is necessary. This would indicate renewed strength and the potential for an upside shift in momentum. The current RSI reading moving above 30 and sitting right at the 50 level offers a bullish view. A reverse and deeper move towards the 30 level could signal potential exhaustion among buyers, but without clear evidence of sellers stepping in, downside risks remain low.

Comments from last week.:  Similar to other major indices, the S&P 500 has established a new bullish pivot point on the Weekly chart, signalling renewed upward potential. Last week’s outside range bar showcased notable market activity, with the price testing the 5100 level—an area of interest and psychological significance. Following this test, the index demonstrated strong bullish momentum, rallying to close at the high for the week. This price behaviour underscores growing buying pressure and suggests that the S&P 500 may be gearing up for further advances, contingent on sustained strength and favourable broader market conditions.

SPX DAILY   Price structure:  Breakaway Gaps

The S&P 500 daily chart confirms a bullish trend, building on the second bullish pivot point from last week at 5500-5550. The index gapped higher on May 1^st and 2nd, crossing 5670 driven by tech strength, economic optimism, and sustained buying post the pivot point low. Traders should watch key levels 5670 and 5700 and the 200-day simple moving average for breakout or a reversal signal showing from early profit taking, with risk management critical in this volatile environment.

Indicator: Relative strength 14. 

The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) having moved below the key 30 level turning higher in line with price action last week, momentum has now turned towards a Bullish buy signal now complete with the cross of the key 50 level. A continuing close above the 50 level is required to remain bullish. If the RSI falls further below the pivotal 50 level, it will likely confirm a further bearish outlook, leading to further downside targets.

Comments from last week:  The daily chart of the S&P 500 highlights the formation of a higher low, a key signal of strengthening bullish momentum. This development is further emphasized by the appearance of a breakaway gap, which marks a decisive shift in market sentiment and underscores the growing demand. Presently, the price has progressed into a previously established gap area, maintaining its strong bullish characteristics. The continuation of this upward movement within the gap area signals the potential for further gains, provided that the bullish momentum remains intact and there are no significant signs of reversal or resistance ahead at the 5670 resistance level.

NASDAQ (100) DAILY Price structure:  Momentum move.

The Nasdaq 100 weekly chart reflects a bullish trend as of the higher being set on the 21^st April 2025, with the index at 20,102, recovering from April’s low and testing the 200-day moving average. The breakout above 19,180, supported by tech strength and current positive economic signals from the receding tariffs, suggests potential for further upside toward 20,500-21,000, though resistance at the 200-day average looms. The recovery from the April lows is not a Primary UP Trend and the Index may consolidate above the 20,900 level.

Indicator: Relative strength 14: Bullish turn

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has now accelerated upward, breaking over the critical 50 level, which signals positive strength in momentum. Should the RSI continue to rise further towards the 70 level, it would serve as a strongly Bullish indicator, highlighting a significant warning of potential further downside may not occur, market participants cannot afford to overlook this outcome.

Comments from last week.  The significant impulsive price movement established on the 9th of April has continued to assert its dominance on the chart, showcasing its lasting impact on market structure. This pronounced move highlights a strong shift in sentiment and momentum, which has effectively shaped the current price action. Its presence remains a critical factor in guiding the ongoing price structure and will likely serve as a reference point for further analysis as the Higher low HL point has now been set along with the short down trend line being broken..

USD Spot GOLD – DAILY:  Price consolidating

Following the rejection high discussed last week, USD Gold has maintained its downward trajectory, extending losses into the close of the week. This sustained decline reflects growing selling pressure, with profit-taking and broader market contributing to the retracement. The first key technical support is now identified at $3167.5, a level that may serve as a potential stabilization point should buyers begin to re-enter the market. The price action around this support zone will be critical in determining whether the current pullback finds a floor or if further declines are likely to test the uptrend line in the near term.

Indicator:  Relative Strength 14: 

The RSI has moved to cross the 70 level but remains lower than the previous high point. This is a signal of weakening internal momentum in this current look back period (14), however, it remains a short-term observation as price begins to consolidate. Further RSI declines in the coming week below the 50 level will reflect the potential for a strong divergence outright sell signal. Short term holders and traders should now monitor the RSI for a cross below the 50 level as a sell signal.

Comments from last week: USD Gold has established a rejection high at the $3,500 level, the long upper shadow reflecting increased selling pressure and notable profit-taking activity among market participants. This development marks a key turning point as the bullish momentum encountered resistance at this critical price level. However, despite the significance of this reversal, there was no follow-through into the close last week, suggesting a potential pause in directional movement. The market may be awaiting additional catalysts or confirmation of the next major trend.

AUD GOLD – DAILY: Reverse Pivot

Gold in Australian dollar term has now set a reverse Pivot point with the close towards the $5000 level. Technical support is shown at $4691, with two influencing inputs of the USD Gold price and the movement in the $AUD, the AUD Gold price may further consolidate above the current UP trend lines. A closing price below the $5000.0 level may see some flow on selling in the Australian Gold producers.

Indicator:  Relative Strength 14: 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a sharp downturn below the 70 level. Momentum is slowing, a further close below the 50 level would indicate momentum has turned bearish. Traders are advised to watch for any minor pullbacks as potential buying opportunities within this broader uptrend, as the overall market sentiment remains strongly in favour of continued gains.

Comments from last week. As the USD Gold price declines along with the $AUD remaining relatively stable the AUD Gold price is beginning to consolidate above the $5,00 level. The current tend lines will be critical in observing the underlying strength in price going forward.

Local Gold producers are beginning to see the benefits of strong cash flows, this is leading to some merger activity.

SILVER Price structure:  trading range

Silver continues to decline from the $33.40 level discussed last week. The FO low point has not acted as the swing point with further selling into the close of last week to retest the Thursday lows at $31.50. A breakdown from this level may see the $28.72 level targeted with first support at $31.50 the key level to hold this week. Silver remains highly tradeable within the current ranges; however, USD Silver is not in a Bull market.

Relative strength 14:

The relative strength index (RSI) has moved lower to align with the recent short-term reversal in price from the $33.40 level.  The current move lower has moved below the 50 level, but not decisively. This movement suggests a potential stabilization or recovery following the recent reversal.

Comments from last week. The price of Silver has been confined to a broad consolidation zone for an extended period, reflecting a balanced tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. However, recent price activity hints at a potential retest of the $35.0 high, suggesting an emerging bullish sentiment within the market. Last week, Silver’s price found key support at the $32.50 level, solidifying its role as a short-term base for upward movement. Simultaneously, resistance was encountered near the $33.40 level, indicating a critical threshold that will need to be overcome for further progress toward the $35.0 mark. These developments outline a decisive phase for Silver as it approaches pivotal levels in the coming days. Silver is not Gold.

AUSTRALIAN VOLATILITY INDEX:  The equities trader’s compass.

The current volatility closing value has closed below the key 13 level with a further spike lower during the week.  Current closing value indicates the XVI volatility level has moved to a Bullish level for Equities as the market VOLATILITY begins to see mid-week lower demand and subsequently lower priced PUT options to cover downside portfolio risk. With the indicator value moving lower from the high Mid-week, the forward pricing (Volatility) of PUT options (insurance) is decreasing, this is observed with an advance in the market. Volatility now rules in this current XJO200 corrective phase.

For continued support of equities, the XVI should remain subdued below the “13” level.

The cost of 3month forward PUT options is moving lower from recent higher levels over 13.

The XVI is the difference between 3-month forward pricing of ETO Options against current month. As markets anticipate events, the forward priced option volatility changes, hence this longer dated forward price change, or “skew” in pricing is measured in this XVI. The XVI value works as an inverse corelation to the underlying market movements.

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