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Global Fundamental Analysis 20/03/2023

Global Fundamental Analysis 20/03/2023, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. stocks fell on bank jitters despite efforts to rescue First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse. Uncertainty prompted investors to buy government bonds and gold, sending Treasury yields lower and lifting gold prices to 11-month highs. The dollar fell broadly. Oil declined on recession fears.

Australian Market

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed a volatile session 0.4% higher, completing a 2.1% weekly decline and its longest run of weekly losses since 2008. The ASX 200 has finished lower for six consecutive weeks.

US Market 

U.S. stocks fell as investors remained on edge about the risk of further bank failures, even after efforts to rescue First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1.2% lower. The S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 0.7%. Friday’s declines concluded a volatile week in which the fallout from two bank failures rippled through financial markets. On Thursday, 11 U.S. banks stepped in to rescue First Republic Bank with a flood of cash totaling $30 billion. Fears about the stability of banks spread across the Atlantic, leading the Swiss National Bank to throw a lifeline to beleaguered lender Credit Suisse.

“Sentiment is highly fragile,” said Edward Park, chief investment officer at U.K. investment firm Brooks Macdonald. “There’s this feeling of ‘What’s next?’ and no one’s getting excited too quickly.” Despite Friday’s losses, the S&P and the Nasdaq ended the session with weekly gains of 1.4% and 4.4%, respectively, while the Dow turned in a small weekly loss. Some investors are hopeful that the fallout from bank failures will lead the Federal Reserve to pause its recent flurry of interest-rate hikes at next week’s meeting. “They can’t afford to have more erosion of confidence and another run on the bank,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.

Commodities

Meanwhile, gold prices finished at 11-month highs and booked their best weekly gain in nearly three years, as fears of a global banking crisis bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the yellow metal. Gold futures for April delivery gained 2.6% to settle at $1,973.50 per ounce on Comex, with the most-active contract rallying 5.7% for the week. That was the highest settlement for the yellow metal since April 18, 2022, and its biggest weekly advance since April 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Oil Futures

Oil futures gave up early gains to end lower, booking the biggest weekly drop of 2023 as worries over the U.S. and European banking sector stoked recession fears. Both WTI and Brent ended the week at 15-month lows, bearing the brunt of a commodity selloff that analysts tied to recession fears that were amplified by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Credit Suisse.

“Oil prices have become particularly caught up in the downward pull amid the current market turmoil,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in a note. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery fell 2.4% to close at $66.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, leaving the U.S. benchmark with a weekly loss of 13%. The U.S. benchmark suffered its biggest weekly loss since June, according to Dow

Jones Market Data, posting its lowest close since Dec. 3. May Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 2.3% to settle at $72.97 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, its lowest close since Dec. 20. For the week, Brent dropped 11.9%, its worst performance since the week ended Aug. 15.

Asian Markets

Earlier Friday, Chinese shares ended mixed, with some stocks paring their losses, as concerns about the U.S. banking sector eased. Software companies led the gains after analysts lauded Baidu’s just-unveiled AI-powered chatbot. Among the losers were pharma and consumption sector stocks. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended 0.7% higher and was up 0.6% for the week. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.5%, and the ChiNext Price Index ended 0.4% lower.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index ended 1.6% higher, boosted by gains in tech companies and easing concerns over the U.S. banking sector. Japanese stocks advanced, led by gains in electronics and tech stocks, as concerns about the U.S. banking sector eased. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.2% with investors remaining focused on any fallout following the recent failures of U.S. banks, economic data and interest-rate implications.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 20/03/2023, FP Markets
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