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Global Fundamental Analysis 17/05/2023

Global Fundamental Analysis 17/05/2023, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. stocks ended lower and the dollar strengthened as debt-ceiling negotiations remained at a standstill. Treasury yields rose as a rebound in U.S. retail sales reinforced the higher-for-longer theme on interest rates. Gold futures ended below $2,000 an ounce for the first time in more than two weeks. Crude-oil prices ended lower as traders weighed demand prospects.

Australian Market

Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.45% lower after minutes from the Reserve Bank’s most recent board meeting showed officials remain hawkish on interest rates.

US Market 

Major stocks indexes fell despite support from growth stocks. Shares of companies in most industries traded lower with debt-ceiling negotiations remaining at a standstill. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged 0.2% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%. Retail-sales data showed Americans modestly increased their spending in April.

But consumers are holding off on big purchases and spending more on experiences. Meanwhile, warnings around the debt ceiling grew louder, further adding pressure to stocks. Congressional recesses are approaching, potentially leading to both chambers being unavailable for negotiations at various points in late May.

Commodities

Meanwhile, gold prices settled under $2,000 an ounce for the first time in more than two weeks, with prices marking their fourth loss in five sessions after failing earlier this month to reach a fresh record high. June gold declined by 1.5% to settle at $1,993 per ounce on Comex, the lowest finish for a most-active contract since May 1, FactSet data show.

Gold remains “trapped within a very wide range on the daily charts,” said Lukman Otunuga, manager of market analysis at FXTM. Should $2,000 prove to be unreliable support, prices may sink toward $1,970. However, a rebound from $2,000 could “open a path back” toward $2,015 and $2,032, respectively.

Oil Futures

Oil ended lower after the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for growth in crude demand, but economic data from China were seen as “underwelming,” raising uncertainty over the demand outlook from the world’s largest energy consumer. West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery fell nearly 0.4% to settle at $70.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

July Brent crude, the global benchmark, shed 0.4% to $74.91 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Economic data from China were “underwhelming,” said Jameel Ahmad, chief analyst at CompareBroker.io. This wasn’t necessarily expected as the market had been “previously relatively content that the Chinese economy reopening, after protracted Covid lockdowns, would provide much-needed help to world economic momentum.”

Asian Markets

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average ended 0.7% higher, led by chip stocks, as concerns ebbed over policy tightening by central banks and deteriorating corporate earnings. Chinese shares closed lower after disappointing economic data that signaled the recovery was losing steam. Industrial production, retail sales and property investment data came in below market expectations. The Shanghai Composite Index ended 0.6% lower, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.7%, and the ChiNext Price Index declined 0.3%.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 17/05/2023, FP Markets
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