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Global Fundamental Analysis 16/03/2023

Global Fundamental Analysis 16/03/2023, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. stocks were mixed as banking fears returned. Treasury yields plunged, with the two-year note’s yield nearing a six-month low. The WSJ Dollar Index rose. U.S. oil prices ended below $70 a barrel as the banking crisis stoked fears of a recession. And gold futures ended at a six-week high with turmoil at Credit Suisse in focus.

Australian Market

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.9% higher, snapping a three-day losing streak and moving back into positive territory for 2023.

US Market 

Fallout from a global banking storm whipsawed stocks as investors fled to the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury market. The S&P 500 ended the day down 0.7% and Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.9% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite Index reversed its losses, ending up less than 0.1%.  

Concerns about Credit Suisse led a rout in European banking shares and U.S. stocks before speculation that Swiss regulators might shore up the bank stoked a rebound. Separately, U.S. supplier prices fell in February from a month earlier, a possible sign of a recent easing in inflationary pressures.

The producer-price index, which generally reflects supply conditions across the economy, fell 0.1% in February from the prior month, compared with a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in January, the Labor Departmentsaid.  

Commodities

Gold prices advanced to settle at a fresh six-week high as banking-sector worries resurfaced with shares of Credit Suisse plunging, reigniting fears about the U.S. banking sector and pushing investors to anticipate a policy pivot from the Federal Reserve. April gold prices gained 1.1% to settle at $1,931.30 per ounce on Comex. That was the highest settlement for the yellow metal since Feb. 1

Oil Futures

Oil futures extended a slump, with the U.S. benchmark closing below $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021 as the fallout from a banking crisis stoked recession fears. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery fell 5.2% to close at $67.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the first close below $70 a barrel for a front-month contract since Dec. 20, 2021, according to Dow Jones Market data. May Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 4.9% to settle at $73.69 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

“Oil is getting destroyed, with big macro looking straight into the U.S. recession vortex and energy traders drawing straight-line parallels to prior bank sector-driven recessions, especially the 2008 financial crisis, which has similar overtones to the current financial tumult and when oil tanked,” said Stephen Innes, managing director of SPI Asset Management, in a note.

Asian Markets

Earlier in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average ended flat as investors continued to digest the latest U.S. and China economic data amid contagion concerns that arose from the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Chinese shares ended mixed as investors sifted through more economic activity data following Beijing’s repeal of its zero-Covid policy. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55%, the Shenzhen Composite Index added 0.3%, and the ChiNext Price Index fell 0.2%.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 16/03/2023, FP Markets
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