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  5. Global Fundamental Analysis 04/10/2022

Global Fundamental Analysis 04/10/2022

Global Fundamental Analysis 04/10/2022, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. equities rallied amid hopes the Federal Reserve could slow down its pace of rate increases. The yield on the 10-year Treasury ticked down to 3.64%, helping gold and silver prices jump. The WSJ Dollar Index dropped to 103.3, also helping gold and silver. Oil prices rose as the OPEC+ countries are expected to announce output cuts Wednesday.

Australian Market

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3%, weighed by a selloff in technology stocks. All but three sectors, energy, utilities and property trusts, closed in the red, with technology stocks the worst performer, closing 1.3% lower. The major banks ticked lower ahead of Tuesday’s RBA cash rate decision.

US Market 

U.S. stocks soared after booking a brutal month of September, as expectations for a potential pause in rate increases from the Federal Reserve after December gathered steam. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.7%, which was its best daily percentage gain since Feb. 25, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 index gained 2.6%. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 2.3%. “There are so many tensions and crises currently coming together,” said Carsten Brzeski, ING Groep’s global head of macro research.

“That’s leading to enormous volatility and uncertainty in markets.” Still, some investors see more upside for stocks going into the final stretch of the year. “I believe the market will end the year higher than where we are today,” said Andrew Slimmon, U.S. equity portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Commodities

Silver prices climbed sharply to post their strongest daily percentage gain since February 2021, and gold futures rose to their highest finish since mid-September as a disappointing reading on U.S. manufacturing contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. December silver futures climbed 8.1% to settle at $20.589 per ounce, with most-active contract prices posting their biggest daily advance since February 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Gold futures for December delivery advanced 1.8% to end at $1,702 per ounce on Comex, the highest finish since Sept. 14.  

Rupert Rowling, an analyst at Kinesis Money, said silver has been rising due to expectations that it will be in “big demand” as the transition toward clean energy continues. Meanwhile, analysts at Sevens Report Research said “the fundamental backdrop is getting less bearish” for gold “as Treasury yields and the dollar may be approaching a peak.”

Oil Futures

Oil prices were sharply higher, with U.S. benchmark prices settling up more than 5%, following reports that the OPEC+ cartel is considering a production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery rose 5.2% to settle at $83.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest front-month contract finish since Sept. 20, according to Dow Jones Market Data. December Brent crude jumped 4.4% to settle at $88.86 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

“Renewed interest in oil was ignited on press reports over the weekend speculating on the potential for a significant production cut of 1 million barrels a day or more when OPEC+ meets on Wednesday, in order to shore up the market in a time of falling demand due to the sputtering global economy,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.

Forex

Major currencies were stronger against the US dollar in European and US trade. The Euro rose from lows near US$0.9750 to highs near US$0.9840 and was near US$0.9825 at the US close. The Aussie dollar rose from lows near US64.25 cents to highs near US65.20 cents and was near US65.15 cents at the US close. And the Japanese yen rose from near 145.17 yen per US dollar to JPY144.20 and was near JPY144.70 at the US close.

European Markets

European sharemarkets lifted on Monday. The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index rose by 0.7%. The UK FTSE 100 index edged 0.2% higher. Energy stocks led the way, up 3.1% in response to a higher oil price. Most sectors posted gains on Monday. Shares in Credit Suisse fell by 0.9%, reflecting market concerns about the Swiss bank as it finalises a restructuring due to be announced on October 27.

Asian Markets

Earlier Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.8%, as the market lost momentum after briefly climbing into the green in morning trade. Chinese banks were among the top decliners, as investor concerns rose in part over Beijing’s latest move to encourage state-owned banks to provide credit support to the real-estate sector.

Mainland markets in China were closed in observance of the National Day of the People’s Republic of China. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average climbed 1.1%, led by gains in semiconductor and auto stocks, following selloffs last week amid concerns about the global economic outlook.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 04/10/2022, FP Markets
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