The FP Markets Research Team produces First Light News during the early hours of the European session, a daily Market Briefing that helps ensure traders and investors are up to date in the macro space for the day ahead.

Good morning.

It was another disappointing one for the dollar on Monday, extending losses for a third consecutive session. MTD, the Dollar Index is on track to pencil in its largest one-month decline in a year. G10 outperformers on the session yesterday were the Norwegian krone (NOK), closely followed by the Japanese yen (JPY). Treasuries rallied, with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping under 4.400%, and spot gold (XAU/USD) found grip north of the widely watched $2,000 level, which could be enough to stir additional breakout buying.

The economic calendar was somewhat bare yesterday, with only tier-2 data to work with.

New Home Sales out of the US fell in the month of October. According to a joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau, ‘sales of newly constructed homes fell 5.6% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000, from a revised rate of 719,000 in September. Sales were up 17.7% from a year ago’.

Also hitting the wires was European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, testifying before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. Lagarde noted that although inflationary pressures are expected to continue to ease, headline inflation could increase in the coming months. Lagarde added: ‘This is not the time to start declaring victory. We need to remain attentive to the different forces affecting inflation and are firmly focused on our mandate of price stability’. Of note, euro area inflation numbers are out on Thursday at 10:00 am GMT. Year-over-year headline inflation for November is expected to slow to 2.7%, down from 2.9% (estimate range falls between 3.3% and 2.5%), while the core measure for the same period is also anticipated to slow to 3.9%, down from 4.2%.

Day Ahead?

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index (M/M and Y/Y) will be released at 2:00 pm GMT, closely followed by the Conference Board’s consumer confidence data and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 3:00 pm GMT.

Charts to Keep an Eye On

The FP Markets Research Team have been closely watching the price of BTC/USD lately.

The daily price of BTC/USD is chalking up a potential ascending triangle pattern between $34,758 and $37,999. Although ascending triangles are recognised as continuation chart patterns (traders tend to buy a breakout above its upper limit and project a profit objective using its base value [in this case at $41,252]), there are times when these pattern formations deliver reversal structure (and traders short the breakout lower).

(Trading View)

G10 FX space as of 09:00 am GMT:

(Trading View)

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.

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