1. Home
  2. »
  3. Recent Posts
  4. »
  5. First Light News: 23...

First Light News: 23 November 2023

First Light News: 23 November 2023, FP Markets

The FP Markets Research Team produces First Light News during the early hours of the European session, a daily Market Briefing that helps ensure traders and investors are up to date in the macro space for the day ahead.

Good morning.

US Jobless Filings Decline

US weekly unemployment filings were much lower than anticipated yesterday, falling by 24,000 to 209,000 for the week ending 18 November (consensus: 226,000; prior: 233,000). Continued claims—also referred to as insured unemployment­—for the week ending 11 November also slowed by 22,000 to 1.84 million, its first decline in two months. Regarding the 4-week moving average, this was also down to 220,000. The release underpinned a short-term bid in the US Dollar Index, though the move was somewhat hampered by lower-than-expected US durable goods orders data falling more than anticipated to -5.4% (consensus: -3.1%; prior: 4.0%). The downbeat release was largely due to softness in the transportation sector ($16.0 billion or 14.8% to $92.1 billion).

First Light News: 23 November 2023, FP MarketsWeekly Unemployment Claims – US Department of Labour

Also of interest yesterday, according to the University of Michigan (UoM), the final reading for inflation expectations in November saw the annual rate increase to 4.5% for the next year. Joanne Hsu, Surveys of Consumers Director, noted in the statement:

‘Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5% this month, up from 4.2% in October, reaching its highest reading since April 2023. Long-run inflation expectations rose from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, a reading last seen in 2011. These expectations have risen in spite of the fact that consumers have taken note of the continued slowdown in inflation; consumers appear worried that the softening of inflation could reverse in the months and years ahead’.

Day Ahead

Eurozone and UK manufacturing and services PMIs will be the day’s highlight. For the eurozone, manufacturing is expected to come in slightly higher at 43.3 (prior: 43.1), while services data is also anticipated to increase to 48.0 (prior: 47.8). Out of the UK, manufacturing is expected to increase to 45.0 (prior: 44.8), while the services component is forecasted to remain unchanged from the previous month at 49.5.

The latest minutes from the ECB meeting in late October will also be watched today; however, this release does not tend to garner much market attention. At the tail end of October, the ECB pressed the pause button on policy firming for all three benchmark rates, which ended ten consecutive rate hikes over 14 months. For many, the ECB might be done with rate increases, though some desks believe there’s a chance we may see the central bank attempt to squeeze through one more rate hike. ECB President Christine Lagarde did not explicitly confirm that they’re finished with rate hikes and noted that it would be ‘premature’ to discuss cuts. Time will tell. Another question, of course, assuming the ECB is done and dusted, is how long will rates remain in restrictive territory? Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of cuts in mid-2024 (like the FOMC, the ECB is also now priced to cut by 100bps next year).

As a reminder, liquidity could be thinner than usual today with US banks closing in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

Markets

The Dollar Index found buyers on Wednesday, drawing price action above its 200-day simple moving average at 103.62. The current price is seen testing the top edge of the SMA as we write. Procyclical currencies ended the session lower yesterday, with the NZD underperforming in the G10 FX space.

US stocks regained some upward momentum ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 184 points (+0.5%) to 35,273, the S&P 500 gained 18 points (+0.4%) to 4,556, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 67 points (+0.4%) to 16,001. Outperformance was evident in communication stocks based on the S&P sectors, with energy and materials stocks ending the session flat.

Crude oil traded lower on Wednesday on the back of OPEC+ postponing the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) until 30 November. Spot gold (XAU/USD) was also on the back foot but is seen testing support on the daily timeframe from $1,989.

G10 FX space as of 08:45 am GMT:

First Light News: 23 November 2023, FP Markets(Trading View)

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • First Light News: 23 November 2023, FP Markets
    • Articles
    • Views
    AUTHOR

    FP Markets

    FP Markets is an Australian regulated broker established in 2005 offering access to Derivatives across Forex, Indices, Commodities, Stocks & Cryptocurrencies on consistently tighter spreads in unparalleled trading conditions. FP Markets combines state-of-the-art technology with a huge selection of financial instruments to create a genuine broker destination for all types of traders.

    PROFILE