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First Light News: 17 November 2023

First Light News: 17 November 2023, FP Markets

The FP Markets Research Team produces First Light News during the early hours of the European session, a daily Market Briefing that helps ensure traders and investors are up to date in the macro space for the day ahead.

Good morning.

US Data

Yesterday’s economic calendar was directed mainly at the US between 1:30 and 2:15 pm GMT.

For the week ending 4 November, jobless filings increased by 13,000 from 218,000 to 231,000; this is the first time the indicator has been above 230,000 since August. The Department of Labor added that the 4-week average also increased by 7,750 from the previous week’s average to 220,250. Continued claims—or insured unemployment—was 1,865,000, marking an increase of more than 30,000 from the previous week’s level. Taking into consideration that we’re seeing easing inflationary pressures across both the consumer and wholesale front, the rise in unemployment claims serves as another indication that the Fed are unlikely to be raising rates.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November was also in the spotlight; the release was stronger than expected, increasing by around 3 points to -5.9 (consensus: -10.4; prior: -9.0) and marking the 16th consecutive negative reading in 18 months. The sub-components were largely mixed; new orders and employment fell, with prices paid also down on the month adding to the disinflationary spiral we’re currently seeing.

Finally, US industrial production data showed activity fell more than expected in October, down 0.6% against economists’ estimates of -0.4%. Output in manufacturing activity dropped 0.7%, against the expected -0.3% and the previous month’s downwardly revised 0.1% increase. The overall decline was primarily affected by the decline in auto output, down 10.0%, mainly due to United Auto Workers union strikes.

Day Ahead

Earlier this morning, we welcomed the latest retail sales data from the UK. Retail sales were disappointing for October. On a month-over-month basis, October saw a 0.3% decline in retail sales compared with the previous month (down 2.4% on a year-over-year basis), falling to its lowest level since early 2021. The release was comfortably below the 0.3% rise expected and south of the downwardly revised reading for September at -1.1%.

The release sent sterling lower, with the currency, aside from the New Zealand dollar (NZD), seen lagging against its G10 peers as of writing.

GBP Performance:

First Light News: 17 November 2023, FP Markets (Trading View)

Attention will now shift to US housing data at 1:30 pm GMT—building permits and housing starts. Expectations heading into the events call for building permits to fall from 1.47 million to 1.45 million and housing starts to drop to 1.35 million from 1.36 million.

G10 FX space as of 09:10 am GMT:

First Light News: 17 November 2023, FP Markets(Trading View)

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.

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