December 4th 2020: EUR. AUD and GBP Test Fresh YTD Highs Ahead of NFP

December 4th 2020: EUR. AUD and GBP Test Fresh YTD Highs Ahead of NFP, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the break of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) in July, and subsequent break of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 in August, buyers made an entrance in November, up by 2.4 percent.

December trading higher by a healthy 1.9 percent argues additional upside may be on the horizon, with ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641) perhaps targeted.

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.4940 is engulfed (May 2 high [2011]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

In tandem with monthly buyers, daily buyers squeezed through the upper perimeter of an early descending wedge pattern (correction) between 1.2011 and 1.1612 (some may interpret this arrangement as a descending triangle pattern) last week, with recent trading overrunning resistance at 1.2095 and forming a third successive bullish close.

Above resistance, pattern traders will likely be monitoring the descending wedge pattern’s take-profit target at 1.2309 (yellow).

RSI fans will note the value recently crossed paths with overbought space, following November’s rally staged ahead of oversold territory.

H4 timeframe:

Thursday refreshing year-to-date highs amid a souring USD witnessed EUR/USD secure position above 1.2130/1.2096 supply (formed on top of daily resistance at 1.2095), with follow-through buying reaching another nearby supply forged between 1.2200/1.2170.

H1 timeframe:

Following a short-lived move north of 1.2150 resistance, price peaked by way of a shooting star candlestick pattern and returned under 1.2150 on Thursday. Demand at 1.2103/1.2118 is in clear view, as is the 1.21 level.

Another clear feature on the H1 chart is RSI bearish divergence out of overbought space.

Observed levels:

Monthly price demonstrating scope to scale higher, together with daily recently dethroning resistance at 1.2095 and showing room to approach 1.2309 potentially places EUR/USD in line for additional gains.

Therefore, testing H1 demand at 1.2103/1.2118, or the 1.21 level, both of which are located within H4 demand at 1.2130/1.2096, could draw in buying interest.

December 4th 2020: EUR. AUD and GBP Test Fresh YTD Highs Ahead of NFP, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following a mild correction that addressed the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply), buyers have so far responded well. Up by 4.5 percent in November, with December also trading higher by 1.4 percent, buyers appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Three successive bullish candles off demand at 0.7345/0.7287 (prior supply), along with the trend on this timeframe depicting a northerly course since March, places a question mark on supply at 0.7453/0.7384.

Absorbing the latter helps confirm the current trend and shines light on supply from 0.7587/0.7528.

The RSI indicator continues to edge towards overbought conditions, following the removal of 52.00 resistance at the beginning of November.

H4 timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Following Monday’s retest at 0.7340 (the upper boundary of an ascending triangle), a common setup among pattern traders in technical analysis, buyers eventually took the currency pair to fresh yearly peaks on Thursday.

Above here, crosshairs are likely directed towards 0.7463, the ascending triangle take-profit target (pink).

H1 timeframe:

Thursday’s writing, as you may recall, highlighted 0.74 as a point of interest for buyers. A 0.74 retest occurred in early Asia Thursday, which (aided by demand at 0.7391/0.7401) attracted fresh bullish flow to 0.7450 resistance during morning trading in the US.

0.7450 continues to serve as resistance as we head into Asia Friday, bolstered by RSI momentum fading overbought levels.

Observed levels:

Monthly price trading from demand at 0.7029/0.6664, along with daily price depicting an uptrend and recently rebounding from demand at 0.7345/0.7287, suggests weakness within daily supply at 0.7453/0.7384.

The ascending triangle take-profit target on the H4 at 0.7463 is likely an area pattern traders have eyes on today, a move that entails crossing above 0.7450 resistance on the H1 and also above the upper side of daily supply at 0.7453.

December 4th 2020: EUR. AUD and GBP Test Fresh YTD Highs Ahead of NFP, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

November, as you can see, worked with the lower edge of the aforesaid pattern and finished the month down by 0.3 percent – a third successive monthly loss.

104.62 ceding ground shines light on demand from 96.41/100.81, followed by trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit level at 91.04 (red).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Wednesday finished by way of a shooting star candlestick pattern, with Thursday delivering a 0.6 percent decline and throwing light on the 103.17 low and demand at 100.68/101.85 (fixed to the upper base of monthly demand).

RSI enthusiasts will note the unit has remained under 57.00 resistance since July.

H4 timeframe:

Support at 103.70 made an arrival Thursday, arranged just ahead of demand from 103.04/103.58, extended from March 2020.

Higher, traders will also note resistance at 104.73.

H1 timeframe:

The modest rebound from H4 support at 103.70 nudges H1 supply at 104.24/104.07 into sight. Should buyers maintain course off 103.70, H1 could form an ABCD pullback into the aforesaid supply zone, joined by a 38.2% Fib level at 104.08.

In terms of the RSI indicator, we recently witnessed the value dip into oversold space and modestly exit the area.

Observed levels:

Monthly price appearing to be on the verge of breaching descending triangle support at 104.62 continues to underline a relatively weak market. Sellers, therefore, could be attracted to a test of H1 supply at 104.24/104.07, shaped by a H1 ABCD pullback.

December 4th 2020: EUR. AUD and GBP Test Fresh YTD Highs Ahead of NFP, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

November trading higher by 2.9 percent and December currently higher by 1 percent stirs trendline resistance (2.1161).

In terms of trend, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Since crossing paths with demand at 1.2645/1.2773 and the 200-day simple moving average in late September, GBP/USD has displayed a gradual interest to the upside and generated an AB=CD pullback concluding at 1.3392. With monthly trendline resistance making an entrance and daily supply also recently joining the fight at 1.3622/1.3467, sellers may eventually take the lead.

RSI followers will also see the line has produced a series of higher highs and lows since late September, on course to welcome overbought conditions.

H4 timeframe:

Cable rallied to fresh year-to-date pinnacles on Thursday, aided by a waning buck. Support is seen at 1.3396, which intraday traders may view as a potential buy zone. Although the level could hold and produce a healthy move, buyers face not only daily supply at 1.3622/1.3467 but also monthly trendline resistance.

H1 timeframe:

Buyers flatlined heading into the early hours of US trading on Thursday, as 1.35 served as resistance, joined by an RSI overbought signal. 1.34 is seen as possible support, secured just ahead of H4 support at 1.3396. Additional support can be found at the 100-period simple moving average around 1.3375.

Observed levels:

Monthly price flirting with trendline resistance and daily supply stepping forward yesterday at 1.3622/1.3467 communicates a bearish vibe.

With higher timeframes displaying collective resistance, sellers could head for a test of 1.34 on the H1 today. It will be here sellers are likely to be tested. Clearing 1.34 would help confirm bearish intent and possibly make a run for 1.33.

December 4th 2020: EUR. AUD and GBP Test Fresh YTD Highs Ahead of NFP, FP Markets

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The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • December 4th 2020: EUR. AUD and GBP Test Fresh YTD Highs Ahead of NFP, FP Markets
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