Note—Charts provided by Trading View
As March comes to an end, EUR/USD is lower by nearly 3 percent and engages with 1.1857/1.1352 demand.
A decisive rebound from the aforesaid demand shifts attention to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641). Extending lower, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.
In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.
After last Wednesday sliced through the 200-day simple moving average, a bearish theme emerged. Quasimodo support from 1.1688 is now within touching distance.
In terms of the RSI oscillator, the value is closing in on oversold space, currently hovering around 31.00.
Demand at 1.1681/1.1725 made an entrance on Tuesday, though has yet to spark much of a bullish response. Interestingly, daily Quasimodo support at 1.1688 is seen lodged within the lower range of H4 demand.
Any upside attempts from the said demand today could have buyers take aim at resistance from 1.1779.
Thanks to Tuesday’s near-0.5 percent drop, EUR/USD is gnawing at space ahead of the 1.17 figure, with the RSI also crawling along the oversold threshold (threatening to possibly drop in on support at 20.64).
Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1762, sheltered beneath the 100-period simple moving average at 1.1779.
Daily Quasimodo support at 1.1688—joined closely with the 1.17 figure on the H1 as well as being held within H4 demand at 1.1681/1.1725—serves as an area of confluence buyers may be drawn to.
February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s interesting was February came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776), sheltered under supply from 0.8303/0.8082.
As March draws to a close, the pair trades lower by 1.5 percent, probing February’s lows. Should sellers take the reins going forward, demand is in view at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply).
With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high ).
Tuesday’s bearish outside reversal echoes a possible extension to the downside, movement perhaps taking aim at demand from 0.7453/0.7384 (dovetailing closely with a 100% Fib extension at 0.7465 and a 1.618% Fib projection at 0.7389). Technicians will also note the 200-day simple moving average circling nearby at 0.7372.
In the event buyers regain footing, trendline support-turned resistance is visible, pencilled in from the low 0.5506, along with supply from 0.8045/0.7985.
As for the RSI oscillator, momentum remains slack, balancing off channel support, drawn from the low 43.70.
Partly modified from previous analysis.
Quasimodo support at 0.7592 re-entered the frame on Tuesday, following a one-sided dip from peaks at 0.7664. Buyers are seen attempting to find acceptance around 0.7592, on track to form a modest hammer candle (a bullish signal at troughs).
Increased interest to the upside swings the pendulum in favour of a test of supply from 0.7696/0.7715, an active zone in play since late January (plotted just south of the 38.2% Fib level at 0.7731 and a 61.8% Fib level from 0.7741).
Failure to defend 0.7592 highlights another layer of Quasimodo support at 0.7529.
Following a retest at resistance from 0.7622 in early US Tuesday, sellers took the currency pair beneath 0.76 and threw light on Quasimodo support at 0.7578, followed by demand plotted at 0.7546/0.7555.
RSI movement is seen bottoming just north of oversold space, following an earlier push below 48.63 support.
The monthly timeframe threatening lower prices, together with Tuesday’s daily bearish outside reversal and the H1 breaking through 0.76, places a question mark on the H4 Quasimodo support line at 0.7592.
The above may lead sellers to target H1 Quasimodo support at 0.7578 ad H1 demand at 0.7546/0.7555.
Another scenario to be mindful of is a potential 0.76 retest as resistance.
Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March, up by 3.6 percent, is shaking hands with descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66. A break here highlights the possibility of continuation moves to as far north as 126.10/122.66 supply.
To the downside, support inhabits 101.70.
Partly modified from previous analysis.
Quasimodo resistance-turned support at 109.38 served buyers well on Monday, delivering additional bullish flow on Tuesday which led candle action to supply at 110.94/110.29, an area circling the monthly descending resistance.
With respect to trend, 2021 has pointed to the upside. Also of interest is price has traded positively above the 200-day simple moving average since late February.
Based on the RSI oscillator, the value continues to explore overbought space, on course to challenge resistance at 83.02.
Following Monday’s near-test of support at 109.36, Tuesday led the currency pair to tops around 110.43, a touch south of supply at 110.85/110.46 (housed within daily supply at 110.94/110.29).
Early hours London witnessed USD/JPY buyers charge through offers at 110 and extend to peaks formed just under 110.50 resistance. Prior to the advance, demand at 109.92/109.99 formed (considered an important area due to it being within this zone a decision was made to break above 110).
Should price retreat, in addition to the aforesaid demand area, trendline support, taken from the low 108.46, is also visible.
Out of the RSI oscillator, we can see the value spun lower just ahead of familiar resistance at 86.43 and now treads water around 68.00.
Despite USD/JPY flexing its financial muscle in March, monthly descending resistance, daily supply at 110.94/110.29 as well as H4 supply from 110.85/110.46 serves as formidable resistance and could prove problematic for buyers.
Should a retreat materialise, H1 demand at 109.92/109.99 is likely a watched area, given it forming a decision point (see above [H1]).
The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018.
Contained within February’s range, March is on track to snap a five-month winning streak and form what candlestick fans call an inside pattern—represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility. A breakout lower tends to be considered a bearish signal.
Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).
Partly modified from previous analysis.
Monday established a shooting star candle formation (bearish signal), which, as you can see, was welcomed by sellers on Tuesday, with the pair clocking session lows at 1.3706.
Regarding technical structure, Quasimodo support at 1.3609 calls for attention to the downside, while upriver we can see trendline support-turned resistance, extended from the low 1.1409.
The view out of the RSI shows the value testing space just south of familiar resistance between 46.21 and 49.16.
For those who read Tuesday’s technical briefing you may recall the following (italics):
Technical framework out of the H4 chart reveals price crossed swords with ascending resistance yesterday, taken from the low 1.3778, and moulded a shooting star candle formation (bearish signal) before pressing lower. Note the ascending resistance converged with a 50.0% retracement at 1.3834 and nearby resistance at 1.3852.
As evident from the chart this morning, cable remains pressured to the downside, with additional selling to potentially target the 127.2% Fib extension at 1.3649 and Quasimodo support at 1.3611.
Price action, according to the H1 chart, settled around 1.3740 on Tuesday, with the unit poised to retest 1.3750 resistance which currently aligns with the 100-period simple moving average. Lower on the curve, however, 1.37, combined with a 1.618% Fib projection and a 100% Fib extension, is on offer as potential support, closely shadowed by trendline resistance-turned support, drawn from the high 1.4001.
Above 1.3750, on the other hand, 1.38 is seen, while below 1.37 we have support at 1.3653.
RSI action, as you can see, is closing in on the underside of the 50.00 centreline.
Short term displays 1.3750 and the 100-period simple moving average as resistance, while 1.37, alongside associated Fib levels, can be seen as support.
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