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Currency Point: USDJPY multi-time framed
- November 29, 2019
There are further signs in currencies that risk trading is facing fatigue and there is growing signs a short period of volatility could appear to bring about a strategic risk off trade position for the final four weeks of the year. In this kind of atmosphere, the most common trade destination is USD/JPY and this
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Week Ahead Video Analysis: “USDJPY multi-time framed”
- November 29, 2019
Currency Point: Falling into the end of the year
- November 22, 2019
Volatility remains below historical norms, however, the risk rally over the past 3 months appears to be losing stream suggesting volatility should increase and that a tactical risk correction over the last four to five weeks of the year is on. Medium-term (six months or so) this should be seen as a buying opportunity
READ MOREWeek Ahead Video Analysis: “Falling into the end of the year”
- November 22, 2019
Currency Point: Technicals catching out
- November 15, 2019
First and foremost, risk currencies have over the past two months, been a very positive long trade as DXY and macroeconomic risks unwounded. However, over the past week several events negate the upside movements these being; First, central bank commentary specifically the RBNZ and RBA on local currency appreciation and what it might do to
READ MOREWeek Ahead Video Analysis: “Technicals catching out”
- November 15, 2019
Currency Point: Deciphering DXY
- November 8, 2019
The risk-on rally of the past month continues to rage ahead, equities in the US are touching extreme overbought levels, but markets have not crossed levels that signal ‘complacent’ however, they are edging closer. One indicator we are watching closely is the relationship between implied and realised volatility. Implied volatility tends to follow realised
READ MOREWeek Ahead Video Analysis: “Currency Point: Deciphering DXY”
- November 8, 2019
Currency Point: Building on momentum
- November 1, 2019
The positive risks building in risk currencies has taken a further step forward this week as the Federal Reserve stepped out of the market for the remainder of 2019. Chairman Powell stated that there would be no rate hikes to the Federal Funds rate until inflation moved ‘significantly’ thus upside risk in the USD
READ MORECurrency Point: All priced in for the AUD
- October 25, 2019
Over the past 4 months, the AUD has consistently been at the bottom end of the G10 currencies. This slide has been driven by the market racing to pricing the next wave in the RBA’s easing cycle. The sell-off has been justified as 3 cuts in 5 months and a spread between the US
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Week Ahead
- October 4, 2019
Currency Point: GBP facing Brexit fatigue
- September 27, 2019
Over the past 5 weeks, all GBP movements have been based on Brexit developments. The rejection of snap elections, ‘hard’ Brexit risk and the null and void’ declaration of prorogation of Parliament have created a ‘strengthening’ scenario in the GBP as ‘perceived risks’ have diminished. However, Brexit is anything but a ‘diminishing’ risk, a hard
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