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  • USD/CAD Forecast: Retail Sales Boost US Dollar, Canada’s CPI in Focus

    USD/CAD Forecast: Retail Sales Boost US Dollar, Canada’s CPI in Focus

    • April 16, 2024

    Canada’s March inflation is expected to rise to 2.9%, potentially impacting a June rate cut. US retail sales beat forecasts, keeping the not-so-soon rate cut story. USD is buoyed by the Chinese authorities, allowing a lower yuan. Good morning to all our readers! Yesterday was dominated by US retail sales data; retail sales rose 0.7%

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  • Mixed Bag for UK Data!

    Mixed Bag for UK Data!

    • April 16, 2024

    Earlier this morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest UK earnings and employment data, and it was largely a mixed print overall. UK Unemployment Jumps to 4.2% UK unemployment climbed to 4.2% from December 2023 to February 2024, up from 3.9% in the three months to January 2024. This marks the largest

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  • Week Ahead: Data from the US, UK and Canada in Focus

    Week Ahead: Data from the US, UK and Canada in Focus

    • April 13, 2024

    It was quite the week! Top of the bill last week, of course, was the stronger-than-expected US CPI inflation print, which, immediately following the release, underpinned the dollar and US Treasury yields, as well as pushed spot gold (XAU/USD) and US equity index futures southbound. Interestingly, a hawkish repricing in the Fed funds target rate

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  • ECB Stands Pat on Rates; Slightly Dovish Rate Statement

    ECB Stands Pat on Rates; Slightly Dovish Rate Statement

    • April 11, 2024

    Rates Remain on Hold The European Central Bank (ECB) claimed the spotlight in recent trading and held all three key benchmarks unchanged; the main refinancing operations rate, the marginal lending facility rate, and the deposit facility rate remain at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively. This did not raise too many eyebrows as both markets and

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  • Hotter-Than-Expected US CPI Prompts Hawkish Repricing!

    Hotter-Than-Expected US CPI Prompts Hawkish Repricing!

    • April 10, 2024

    Data came in broadly higher than expected for the March US CPI inflation print. Higher-Than-Expected Reports on Three of the Four Major Prints Year-on-year headline CPI inflation for March rose +3.5%, up from +3.2% in February and a touch higher than economists’ estimates of +3.4%. Of note, this follows a rise of +3.4% in December

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  • BoC Preview: No-Change Expected; Forward Guidance Eyed

    BoC Preview: No-Change Expected; Forward Guidance Eyed

    • April 10, 2024

    Market Pricing – Unlikely to Adjust Rates The Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to update policy later today at 2:45 pm GMT+1. Markets are currently pricing around a 16% probability of a 25bp cut at the upcoming meeting, with June pricing in -20bps of easing and July fully pricing in a -25bp cut. Recent

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  • Key Event Risk of the Week: Markets Eyeing US CPI Inflation

    Key Event Risk of the Week: Markets Eyeing US CPI Inflation

    • April 9, 2024

    Market Consensus: Year on year – Headline: Estimate: 3.4%; Previous: 3.2% (Estimate Range: 3.5% High; 3.1% Low) Core: Estimate: 3.7%; Previous: 3.8% (Estimate Range: 3.8% High; 3.5% Low) Month on month – Headline: Estimate: 0.3%; Previous: 0.4% (Estimate Range: 0.5% High; 0.2% Low) Core: Estimate: 0.3%; Previous: 0.4% (Estimate Range: 0.4% High; 0.2% Low) Bloomberg

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  • ECB and US CPI in the Headlights This Week

    ECB and US CPI in the Headlights This Week

    • April 6, 2024

    Last week ended with the US Employment Situation Report. Markets witnessed a monster beat for employment growth; the US economy added more than 300,000 jobs in the month of March versus a median estimate of 210,000 (prior data: small downward revision from +275,000 to +270,000). This marked the largest one-month gain in nearly 12 months.

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  • Dollar Index Slammed Lower on Powell’s Comments

    Dollar Index Slammed Lower on Powell’s Comments

    • April 3, 2024

    Dollar Index Slammed Lower on Powell’s Comments Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently made the airwaves, delivering remarks on the economic outlook at Stanford Business School. Key Takeaways from the Speech: The Fed Chief does not envisage easing policy until there is more confidence regarding the inflation picture but still believes it will be ‘appropriate’ to

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  • EUR/USD Ahead of Euro Area Inflation Release

    EUR/USD Ahead of Euro Area Inflation Release

    • April 2, 2024

    ECB Dovish Stance Recently, the ECB adopted more of a dovish stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the eurozone’s economy is in a disinflationary process and added that inflation is ‘making good progress’. Lagarde added that they are confident but ‘not sufficiently confident’ and commented that additional data is needed; more will be known

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  • Quiet Week Ahead in the Markets

    Quiet Week Ahead in the Markets

    • March 23, 2024

    Compared to last week’s bumper slate of event risk, this week will be considerably more subdued, influenced not only by limited global asset drivers but also by liquidity thinning ahead of the long Easter weekend. Core PCE Data The headline event for the week will be the US Core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred measure

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  • BoE Holds the Line; Vote Split Change Triggers Dovish Reaction

    BoE Holds the Line; Vote Split Change Triggers Dovish Reaction

    • March 21, 2024

    8-1 Vote in Favour of Bank Rate Hold Following the Fed holding its Fed funds target rate at 5.25%-5.50%, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprising markets this morning and cutting its overnight Policy Rate by 25bps, the Bank of England (BoE) followed the Fed and left the Bank Rate on hold at 5.25% (a

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