Week Ahead: US CPI Inflation Takes Centre Stage
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- January 12, 2025
2025 is well and truly underway. Welcome to the first ‘week ahead’ edition! The December 2024 US employment situation report crowned last week’s busy economic data slate. Non-farm payrolls surprised to the upside, with the economy adding 256,000 new jobs from November’s downwardly revised reading of 212,000. December’s print comfortably surpassed the market’s median expectation
READ MOREThe European Central Bank (ECB) reduced the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.0% today amid easing inflationary pressures and faltering growth. The rate cut also marks the central bank’s fourth rate reduction this year, with the interest rate at its lowest since early 2023. This also followed the Swiss National Bank
READ MOREThe first full week of December places the spotlight on US jobs data. Employment metrics from the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) land on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, JOLTs data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) airs Tuesday, ADP jobs numbers (Automatic Data Processing) are out Wednesday, weekly
READ MOREQ3 24 earnings for Nvidia (Nasdaq; ticker: NVDA) – a leader in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip and data centre solutions market – and the company’s Q4 forward guidance will be released after the market closes today. Over the past two years, Nvidia’s performance has been nothing short of remarkable, resulting in substantial growth in
READ MOREA report released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that all key inflation measures exceeded expectations in October. As a result, the British pound (GBP) appreciated against all G10 currencies, with the strongest gains seen against the Japanese yen (JPY). Additionally, FTSE 100 futures experienced a moderate decline following the report,
READ MOREPolicymakers ‘may’ think twice about reducing the overnight rate by another 50 basis points (bps) next month following inflation accelerating to the upside. I emphasise the word ‘may’ here. According to the October CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index) released by Statistics Canada, headline YY (Year on Year) CPI inflation increased to 2.0%. This marked
READ MOREUSD to Remain Bid? US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s modestly hawkish commentary last week – ‘the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates’ – coupled with other Fed officials echoing a similar vibe as well as sticky inflation, prompted a dovish rate repricing.
READ MOREWhy the sudden surge in demand for Bitcoin and many other major Digital Currencies? Trump Trade In addition to institutional demand, the US Federal Reserve’s rate reductions (and forecasts of further policy easing), I am largely putting the latest rally down to Donald Trump’s election win. Trump’s pro-business stance and promises of tax cuts and
READ MOREThe Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a report today revealing that unemployment in the UK is estimated to have risen to 4.3% in the three months to September, with nearly 1.5 million people out of work. With Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget expected to increase taxes by £40 billion and understandable apprehension around spiralling employment
READ MORE7:00 am GMT tomorrow welcomes UK employment data for September. Expectations heading into the event show economists forecast regular pay (excludes bonuses) to have fallen to 4.7% in the three months to September (y/y) from August’s reading of 4.9% (maximum and minimum estimate range between 4.8% and 4.6%), while pay that includes bonuses is expected
READ MOREIn a unanimous decision, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced the fund target rate by 25 basis points (bps) today and was widely priced in by investors. The decision brought the target rate to 4.50-4.75% and followed the 50bp reduction at September’s meeting. Rate Statement The rate statement maintained its message regarding economic activity continuing
READ MOREIn an 8-1 vote, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. This marks the second cut this year and was widely expected by markets and economists. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann (an external member), the sole dissenter, opted to keep the
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