• Quiet Week Ahead in the Markets

    Quiet Week Ahead in the Markets

    • March 23, 2024

    Compared to last week’s bumper slate of event risk, this week will be considerably more subdued, influenced not only by limited global asset drivers but also by liquidity thinning ahead of the long Easter weekend. Core PCE Data The headline event for the week will be the US Core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred measure

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  • BoE Holds the Line; Vote Split Change Triggers Dovish Reaction

    BoE Holds the Line; Vote Split Change Triggers Dovish Reaction

    • March 21, 2024

    8-1 Vote in Favour of Bank Rate Hold Following the Fed holding its Fed funds target rate at 5.25%-5.50%, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprising markets this morning and cutting its overnight Policy Rate by 25bps, the Bank of England (BoE) followed the Fed and left the Bank Rate on hold at 5.25% (a

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  • FOMC: 3 Rate Cuts Still on the Table for 2024

    FOMC: 3 Rate Cuts Still on the Table for 2024

    • March 21, 2024

    It was all about the FOMC yesterday. In a unanimous decision, the Fed held the benchmark lending rate at 5.25%-5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting (this is the highest rate in more than two decades), as widely expected. The majority of Fed officials also still favour three rate cuts this year, which was moderately dovish

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  • FOMC to Hold the Line; Eyes on the Guidance/Dots

    FOMC to Hold the Line; Eyes on the Guidance/Dots

    • March 20, 2024

    Following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) standing pat on rates and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising its Policy Rate by 10bps, consequently putting a cap on NIRP, as well as ending YCC, the focus shifts to today’s FOMC rate decision at 6:00 pm GMT. Fed Funds Rate to Remain at 5.25%-5.50% It is

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  • UK CPI Inflation Mixed

    UK CPI Inflation Mixed

    • March 20, 2024

    Earlier this morning, UK inflation numbers hit the wires. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), which is essentially an extension to the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), slowed to 3.8% in the twelve months to February, down from January’s reading of 4.2%. The CPI year-on-year rate saw consumer prices cool to 3.4%

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  • BoJ Hikes Rates but Serves up Limited Guidance

    BoJ Hikes Rates but Serves up Limited Guidance

    • March 19, 2024

    Following a raft of mixed messages from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and stronger-than-expected wage negotiations for corporate Japan, the central bank stepped up overnight and ended eight years of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) as well as putting a cap on yield curve control (YCC). The BoJ raised its Policy Rate by 10bps for

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  • Huge Week for the Markets!

    Huge Week for the Markets!

    • March 16, 2024

    At the centre of things this week are rate announcements from major central banks, including updates from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We also welcome inflation numbers from Canada and the UK,

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  • Monthly UK GDP Elbows into Positive Territory

    Monthly UK GDP Elbows into Positive Territory

    • March 13, 2024

    The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the UK economy rebounded by 0.2% in January (in line with market forecasts), bolstered by robust growth in retail, wholesale and construction. This followed a month-over-month fall of 0.1% in December 2023 and two consecutive quarters of contraction in the second half of

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  • Hotter-Than-Expected US CPI; The Last Mile Will be Bumpy

    Hotter-Than-Expected US CPI; The Last Mile Will be Bumpy

    • March 12, 2024

    According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the year-over-year change in US consumer prices accelerated for a second straight month in February. Elevated Inflation Nominal headline inflation rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis for February, which fell in line with economists’ estimates and a touch higher than January’s 0.3% reading. Year-over-year

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  • US CPI and UK Wage Growth Set to Take the Stage This Week

    US CPI and UK Wage Growth Set to Take the Stage This Week

    • March 9, 2024

    Where We Were Last Week Fed Chair Jerome Powell was in the limelight last week after his two-day testimony before Congress but failed to shed much light on the timing of rate cuts. The Fed chief, however, did reiterate the Fed’s intention to ‘begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year’ and noted

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  • ECB Rates Unchanged; Downside Revisions in Growth and Inflation

    ECB Rates Unchanged; Downside Revisions in Growth and Inflation

    • March 7, 2024

    Following the Bank of Canada (BoC), the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would hold all three key benchmark rates unchanged today for a fourth consecutive meeting, as widely expected. Downward Revisions in Growth and Inflation The updated macroeconomic Staff Projections observed a more optimistic picture for inflation in the form of downward revisions, and,

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  • BoC Rate Decision: Dovish Policy Shift?

    BoC Rate Decision: Dovish Policy Shift?

    • March 6, 2024

    Today will see the release of the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision at 2:45 pm GMT. BoC to Hold the Line The BoC is widely expected to keep its Overnight Rate on hold at 5.0% for a fifth consecutive meeting—a 22-year peak. As per the OIS curve, there’s only a 6% chance that we

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