Quiet Week Ahead in the Markets
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- March 23, 2024
Compared to last week’s bumper slate of event risk, this week will be considerably more subdued, influenced not only by limited global asset drivers but also by liquidity thinning ahead of the long Easter weekend. Core PCE Data The headline event for the week will be the US Core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred measure
READ MORE8-1 Vote in Favour of Bank Rate Hold Following the Fed holding its Fed funds target rate at 5.25%-5.50%, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprising markets this morning and cutting its overnight Policy Rate by 25bps, the Bank of England (BoE) followed the Fed and left the Bank Rate on hold at 5.25% (a
READ MOREIt was all about the FOMC yesterday. In a unanimous decision, the Fed held the benchmark lending rate at 5.25%-5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting (this is the highest rate in more than two decades), as widely expected. The majority of Fed officials also still favour three rate cuts this year, which was moderately dovish
READ MOREFollowing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) standing pat on rates and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising its Policy Rate by 10bps, consequently putting a cap on NIRP, as well as ending YCC, the focus shifts to today’s FOMC rate decision at 6:00 pm GMT. Fed Funds Rate to Remain at 5.25%-5.50% It is
READ MOREEarlier this morning, UK inflation numbers hit the wires. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), which is essentially an extension to the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), slowed to 3.8% in the twelve months to February, down from January’s reading of 4.2%. The CPI year-on-year rate saw consumer prices cool to 3.4%
READ MOREFollowing a raft of mixed messages from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and stronger-than-expected wage negotiations for corporate Japan, the central bank stepped up overnight and ended eight years of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) as well as putting a cap on yield curve control (YCC). The BoJ raised its Policy Rate by 10bps for
READ MOREAt the centre of things this week are rate announcements from major central banks, including updates from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We also welcome inflation numbers from Canada and the UK,
READ MOREThe latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the UK economy rebounded by 0.2% in January (in line with market forecasts), bolstered by robust growth in retail, wholesale and construction. This followed a month-over-month fall of 0.1% in December 2023 and two consecutive quarters of contraction in the second half of
READ MOREAccording to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the year-over-year change in US consumer prices accelerated for a second straight month in February. Elevated Inflation Nominal headline inflation rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis for February, which fell in line with economists’ estimates and a touch higher than January’s 0.3% reading. Year-over-year
READ MOREWhere We Were Last Week Fed Chair Jerome Powell was in the limelight last week after his two-day testimony before Congress but failed to shed much light on the timing of rate cuts. The Fed chief, however, did reiterate the Fed’s intention to ‘begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year’ and noted
READ MOREFollowing the Bank of Canada (BoC), the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would hold all three key benchmark rates unchanged today for a fourth consecutive meeting, as widely expected. Downward Revisions in Growth and Inflation The updated macroeconomic Staff Projections observed a more optimistic picture for inflation in the form of downward revisions, and,
READ MOREToday will see the release of the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision at 2:45 pm GMT. BoC to Hold the Line The BoC is widely expected to keep its Overnight Rate on hold at 5.0% for a fifth consecutive meeting—a 22-year peak. As per the OIS curve, there’s only a 6% chance that we
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