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Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets

XJO WEEKLY
Price structure: Primary trend

Last week saw a solid move over the 7200 resistance level, with the close in the high of the range continuation should be expected. With the resistance support level of 7200, just breached, this should provide support for any retracement in the coming week. An immediate close below this level would send a bearish signal. A retest of this level is best scenario following 4 weeks of solid gains.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14

Relative Strength has closed above the 50 levels as part of the overall change in momentum. Price momentum has turned significantly to the upside, indicated by the rising RSI, a further movement over the key 50 levels towards the 70 levels would be very bullish.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: The impulsive move of 2 weeks ago remains unchallenged, with last week’s small range remaining at the high of the previous impulsive bar. Resistance remains at 7200, a closing breakout over this level would be very bullish for further gains. The key support level remains at 6930. With the current close over the late June high, a bullish continuation could be expected in the coming weeks.

 

XJO DAILY
Price structure: 2nd Breakout

The consolidation of the price at the 7130 has provided the base for a bullish move higher. The short-range daily movement from last Thursday and Friday is the reaction to the US markets being closed for the Thursday Thanksgiving holiday and Friday always being a very light volume day. Should the price move below the 7200 weekly support level, look for a retest of 7130. The price to hold this level would ultimately be a bullish development.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14

The Relative Strength Indicator (14) reflecting the underlying strong price momentum has moved higher over the 70-level, indicating continuing strong momentum. Relative Strength is moving in sync with the daily action of the market and does not offer a trading signal as momentum is currently shifting to the upside. Early momentum failure would be indicated with a closing price again below the 7130 level and a place to monitor for bearish divergence signal.

Indicator: VOLUME

Volumes continue to decline as the market rises, a bearish development. High volume over 1Bil indicates fresh money flow and remains very supportive for further gains. Only DAILY volumes over 1Bil on a Daily basis would indicate strong new money buying.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: In line with the weekly comments, the current price action in the Daily chart is bullish for further gains, with a close remaining over the 7130 level. The continued movement will target 7370 resistance. The Daily movement is currently trending, traders would look for a reversal pattern to indicate a loss of positive sentiment.

S&P 500 WEEKLY
Price structure:

The S&P 500 has met the first inflection point at 4050. A close above this level would be very Bullish for further gains. The current close towards the high of the week is a strong indicator for further advances towards 4200 points. A breakout over the down trendline would be very bullish and offer further gains.

Indicator: Relative Strength Indicator 14

Relative Strength has set a new higher low and has currently moved over the key 50 levels (just), indicating positive momentum. The RSI should remain over the 50 level during this current price advance to remain bullish.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: The small range bar last week indicates the market is in balance, with the very important level of 4050 remaining as resistance. A breakout from the trendline would be significant for the bulls, the next important resistance is 4200.

S&P 500DAILY
Price structure: Confirmed bullish structure

The shortened week has the index testing the 200-day moving average. A close over this level would signal further gains. Last Wednesday’s close has set a Fake out bar and can provide a reversal signal with a confirmed lower close in the following price action this week. The price gap at 4200 remains the primary price target.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14

Relative Strength has turned higher and moved over the 50 levels, a very strong indication of immediate improving momentum. Further price weakness for this index will see the RSI turn to move lower below the key 50 levels.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: Last Friday set a new buy pivot as the index tested the 200-day moving average and retraced to 3940, also testing the October high. This pattern remains very bullish for a further advance as price action this week following the Friday pivot point has the potential to retest the 200-day average. With the Daily trend developing, higher prices could be expected.

 

NASDAQ DAILY
Price structure: Base ready to break out

The consolidation over the last 9 trading days contains a 3 bar reversal and an OPu with a follow-through with last Friday posting an inside period. This Index continues to build support over the 11,600 level with the potential to retest the 12,400 level. The underlying price movements are not impulsive, so the trader should remain cautious of a potential retest lower.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14

The Relative Strength Indicator moving back above the 50 levels but moving sideways in line with the current price decline back to retest the October high area around 11,600. RSI turning higher would indicate improving positive momentum.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: Trend strength in the Nasdaq remains weaker than the S&P 500, although a small 3 bar reversal pattern is present, an immediate follow-through is required to confirm the set-up. 12400 remains the current price target as this trend develops. A close look at the individual bar shows lower shadows remain prevalent as the Index moves from the October lows.

USD Spot GOLD – DAILY
Is it a Bull market? Yes

A very good technical picture has developed with a successful retest of the $1727 level with an immediate reaction higher following the OPu setting the low point. Last Friday, OPu remains bullish with a high close in the range. This is a very good setup following the impulsive breakout from the down trendline.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14

The RSI moving above the 50 level and turning higher indicates a swing in the momentum direction. A positive observation going forward is for the RSI to remain above the 50 levels. (Price consolidation would naturally see the RSI drift back to around the 50 levels. A strong movement, either way will show the next directional move.)

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: A very strong price rally, failing to make the $1804 level, has Gold retracing back towards the $1730. A good development for a trending action should this lower level hold and price rally this will affirm a developing trend. This is a significant development for the Gold price structure following the major 3 spike low pattern.

SILVER DAILY
Price structure: Bull market? – Almost.

Silver has provided a similar reversal pattern as seen in Gold. The $20.80 level now remains as an important support level, as this potential Primary up trend continues to develop. Friday’s lower move was quickly overcome, with the price closing at the high of the range for the day. A further close over $22.26 would be very bullish in this developing trend.

Relative Strength 14

Current Relative Strength is rising sharply; however, the current movement ticking lower towards the 50-level, RSI turning higher again would reflect the underlying momentum again increasing and remaining positive. A continuing move above the 70 level and higher would be a very bullish signal in the short term. Price consolidation results in the relative strength turning back towards the 50 levels.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: The structural trend pattern in Silver is more advanced than the Gold pattern, with current price movements retesting the breakout level of $20.80. This is an important support level for Silver to hold in the coming week. The Silver chart has a 3 spikes low pattern similar to Gold indicating the base pattern is in and complete.

 

AUD GOLD DAILY
Price structure: Consolidation remains

The Bull flag continues to develop, with the lows beginning to retest the $2580 level, a further decline in the $AUD would lift the XAUAUD value. This chart remains very constructive to the Australian local producers. Overall the price structure remains a large consolidation zone.

Indicator Relative Strength 14

Relative Strength has turned lower in line with the price action following the rise from below the 50 levels. Overall, momentum has now turned neutral. A continued movement below the 50 level would be a strong negative for further price gains.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: Australian dollar Gold continues to consolidate above the $2580 level, with a bullish flag developing following the resistance point of $2676. Overall price remains within a large consolidation zone from March 2022 to the current period.

DAILY COPPER
Price structure: Potential breakout.

The key observation remains price continues to trade within the base pattern, a break lower from the $3.47 level would be very bearish.

However, last week’s small range following the Gap open buy as the opening tick gaps from the last close indicates some balance in price at this level. A close over the $3.80 level would offer a bullish signal for further gains.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14

The current reading has swung from below the 30-level to turn higher again as the downward momentum has stopped, however, the current reading has not remained above the key 50 level. The key now is for the RSI to swing back above the 50 levels as a reflection of ongoing price gain momentum.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from last week: The Monday gap down and follow-through fast rejection of higher prices without finding support at the $3.80 highlights the base-building volatility at times found in the metals. The key observation is price remains within the base pattern, a break lower from the $3.47 level would be very bearish.

 

AUSTRALIAN VOLATILITY INDEX

The volatility reading moved dramatically lower last week and now remains below the 13-level indicating forward pricing of PUT options is weaker. This is very good for equities during this week. In general, lower consolidating commodities prices and equity prices or consolidation of equity prices is indicated as the reading remains above the 13 levels.

The XVI should move below the “13” level for the continued support of equities.

The cost of 3-month forward PUT options is decreasing from recent elevated levels.

The XVI is the difference between the 3-month forward pricing of ETO Options against the current month.

As markets anticipate events, the forward-priced option volatility changes, hence as forward price changes, this “skew” in pricing is measured in this XVI.

The XVI value works as an inverse observation of the underlying market.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets

USD DOLLAR INDEX
Price structure: Setting a lower low

The secondary consolidation continues to develop above the 105.80 level. Bullish divergence has developed, with the Relative Strength indicator moving higher as the Index set a new low last week. This is a bullish development; however, the consolidation picture remains for now. The final target for the DXY remains 104, this would provide some tailwind for commodities.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14

The Relative Strength has turned lower in line with price movements indicating further consolidation as the current reading is now below the 30 levels. This will move lower to sideways should the price decline, only a continued reading back above 30 and then the 50 levels would indicate a change in price momentum.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from last week: The Daily chart indicates a secondary market is developing in the DXY above the 105.80 level following the strong momentum decline out of 110.75 and subsequent break of the trendline. The USD Index remains in a primary down-trend, with 104 as the primary target for further weakness.

 

WTI – CRUDE OIL
Price structure: Full Bull Market has failed. This commodity is highly news driven around supply-demand.

Oil sets a new closing low towards the $75.20 level. The break of the September low put Oil into a Primary downtrend. This is developing the potential to break lower to test the $66.00
level, this can result in further selling as the downtrend develops.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14

The RSI running around the 50 levels is a result of consolidation as upward momentum slows, recent price reversal has resulted in a sharp movement below the key level of 50, signalling decreasing price momentum. Developing Consolidation with a mixture of advanced and declines sets the RSI up to continue a move around the 50 levels.

Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
Comments from last week: A significant price breakdown from the $84.25 level shows the Price movement starting to “trend” lower. $75.20 remains key support for any further weakness. The lower shadow of the current bar is indicating late week support. Price remains within a consolidation zone between $75.20 and $94.0.

  • Black and White Technical Report Week Beginning 28/11/2022, FP Markets
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