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Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

XJO WEEKLY  Price structure:

The Weekly closing price has remained below the 6930-level following the price support level of 6620 remaining intact. The next level of resistance at 7200 remains the target in this current movement higher. Price reaching this level would indicate a breakout of the current down trend.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

Relative strength has again closed on the 50 level as part of the overall change in relative strength. Price momentum has turned to the upside indicated by the rising RSI, a further  movement over the key 50 level would be very bullish.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week: The “midpoint” support level of 6620 remains in play with resistance of 6930 the immediate go to point for further gains. A close over this level and the Daily resistance of 7130 would be very bullish for further gains. To build a primary UP trend a move over the 7200 level would be an important development. As the market moves into the seasonal end of October, the November period is often a negative month, the 6620 level may come into play again.

XJO DAILY  Price structure: Coming out of a base.

The midweek breakout to 7010 set a pivot reversal last Thursday as price retested the trendline with the lower shadow testing the up-trend line. A very supportive pattern for further gains. A closing price below the 6800 level would indicate a breakdown in this current structure.Indicator:  Relative strength 14:

The Relative strength Indicator (14) reflecting the underlying price momentum has moved higher over the 50-level indicating a change in momentum. Relative strength is moving in sync with the daily action of the market and does not offer any trading signal other than indicating momentum is currently shifting to the upside.

Indicator:  VOLUME:

Friday low volume bar was developed on a large retracement bar indicating a lack of conviction for further selling.

Only DAILY volumes over 1Bil on a Daily basis would indicate strong new money buying.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  With the Index moving over the 6850  level Friday’s rejection at the short trendline has set a reverse pivot in a risk off movement.

Given the price action in the US  this reversal bar may be short lived.
A solid close over the 6870 level would force a significant short cover rally with 7130 the upside target.

S&P 500 WEEKLY Price structure:

Indicator:  Relative strength Indicator 14.

The reading below the 50 level, last week the indicator turned higher, indicating a continuing change in momentum, this week may ultimately continue the momentum move higher. A continuing movement towards and over the 50 level would be a very strong short term bullish signal. Positive momentum requires a reading above the key level of 50 to give a momentum buy signal.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week: The Primary trend remains down, with the current recovery remaining a corrective movement inside that trend. The first weekly resistance levels are 4050 and 4200 which is concurrent with short downtrend line. Last week produced an expanded range over the previous pivot reversal week, this is regarded as very bullish for further gains.

S&P 500 DAILY Price structure: Developing bullish structure.

The Daily view indicates a Gap open buy signal from last Thursday followed through with a higher close into Friday. The 3940 level still poses significant resistance with support at 3650. The trading range between 3600 support and 4300 resistance remains intact.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

Relative strength has turned higher but remaining below the 50 level, still a very strong indication of immediate improving momentum.

Further price weakness for this index will see the RSI move lower.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week The OPu from 2 weeks ago has played out with the index heading towards the first real resistance level of 3940. The Index price has now moved outside of the short down trendline and heading to the 200 day moving average level. Further gaps remain open above the 4100 level. 

NASDAQ DAILY Price structure:  Base building

The current price decline back to the trendline may offer some support indicated by the OPd (outside period down close) as an indication of a developing swing point. A further price movement over the recent 11680 high point would place the NDX into an uptrend with further gains expected. The GAP opening at 12420 remains the prime price target.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

The Relative strength indicator moving back below the 50 level in line with the current price decline back to the trendline.

With a strong divergence signal in the recent background a continuing move higher could be expected.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  The Gap open Buy signal: mentioned last week has confirmed the current move higher, further bullish activity is seen in the Last bar OPU (outside period up close)
Price action in the Nasdaq indicates the Index is a historical gap filler, in this current observation the higher gap at 12420 would be the current price target.

USD Spot GOLD – DAILY:   Is it a Bull market?  Maybe

The USD Gold price has set a SIGNIFICANT bas pattern with 3 spike low points with the completion of the final bar also setting pivot point reversal signal and given the range of the bar an impulsive price move is noted. This is an important development for a potential new trend developing, a continuing movement over the $1740 level will confirm this outcome.

Indicator:  Relative Strength 14:

The RSI moving below the 50 level and rising sharply indicates a swing in momentum direction. A positive observation going forward is the RSI remaining above the 50 level.

(Price consolidation would naturally see the RSI drift back too around the 50 level. A strong movement either way will show the next directional move.)

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  The $16776.0 level has played out again as resistance in this continuing downtrend. The current close below $1656.0  may be followed by a further break of the $1620 lows would confirm further downside potential. A break of the September and current October low may lead to a capitulation movement lower to again test the $1600 level and lower. To build a bullish case a close over $1676 may confirm a higher low in place and offer a bullish view

SILVER DAILY  Price structure: Bull market? – Almost.

The Daily chart of Silver also indicates the 3 point lows as the precursor to the current breakout. A further movement over the recent high of $21.50 will confirm a primary up trend is developing. Last Friday also set an impulsive move and sets the reversal pivot point, a very good setup for further gains. A close below the $19.60 level will negate the bullish view with the potential for further consolidation.

Relative strength 14:

Current Relative strength is rolling sideways with the current movement ticking higher over the 50-level, RSI turning higher again would reflect the underlying momentum again turning positive.

A continuing move above the 50 level and higher would be very bullish signal in the short term. Price consolidation results in the relative strength turning towards the 50 level.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from last week:

The resistance level of $19.60 has again set a up a bearish reversal pivot point. The greater consolidation pattern from July continues to develop. For the bullish traders this type of consolidation can lead to a significant breakout up or down. Price crossing back higher over the $19.60 level would be an early indication of a bullish move, as would a price crossing below $18.40 set up a bearish move.

AUD GOLD DAILY Price structure:  Consolidation remains

The higher low support set at $2537 is highlighted with a OPu (outside period up close)

Swing point confirming as a pivot point, set the stage for a retest of the 2676 level in the coming days. This will have a direct positive influence on the Australian Gold producers. The explorers remain subject to news announcements and may not react to the immediate  Gold price movements.

Indicator Relative strength 14:

Relative strength has turned higher from below the 50 level. Overall, momentum has now turned Bullish. A continued movement above the 50 level would be a strong positive for further price gains.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:

Price remains mid-way between major support and resistance with current consolidation around the $2580 level, current price action would suggest a move lower following Fridays rejection of this level.  Looking at the next support level of $2537, should price  move to this level, some support could be expected. Australian Gold producers may see price consolidation over the coming days.

DAILY COPPER Price structure: Potential breakout.

Over the past 5 months of consolidation the underlying trendline has remained intact as the base continued to build. The earlier Gap open buy signal has followed through into the current impulsive price movement. A further close over the $3.80 level will set the underlying primary trend to UP.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

Current reading has swung from below the 30-level to again turn sideways to higher as downward momentum has slowed, however the current reading remains below the key 50 level (just). The key now, is for the RSI to swung back above the 50 level as a reflection of ongoing price gains.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  Sellers again entered as price approach the $3.80 resistance level as price again closed in on the $3.47 support / resistance value. The long term trendline remains in place, the strong observation of this developing pattern is one of a bearish structure with a $2.98 target.

To develop a bullish picture of this chart a close over $3.80 is required.

AUSTRALIAN VOLATILITY INDEX:

Volatility reading has moved significantly lower from last week but remains above the 13 level indicating forward pricing of PUT options remains strong. In general, lower equity prices or consolidation of equity prices is indicated as the reading remains above the 13 level.

For continued support of equities, the XVI should move below the “13” level.

The cost of 3month forward PUT options is decreasing from recent elevated levels.

The XVI is the difference between 3-month forward pricing of ETO Options against

current month.

As markets anticipate events, the forward priced option volatility changes,

hence as forward price changes, this “skew” in pricing is measured in this XVI.

The XVI value works as an inverse observation to the underlying market.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

USD  DOLLAR INDEX Price structure: Setting a lower low

The USD Index has also completed an important top pattern with the 3 spike high points and in this case has also set a Lower high with the completion of the Pivot point last Friday the low testing the 110.75 level. Further confirmation will occur with price moving to 109.47 and below.

Indicator:  Relative strength 14:

The Relative strength has turned sideways in line with price movements indicating further consolidation as the current reading is now below the 50 level.

This will move lower to sideways should price decline, only a continued reading back above the 50 level would indicate continuing strong price momentum.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  A good technical picture developing, as the USD Index respects past levels. The primary trend has changed to down with the break of the October low.  A further close over the 110.75 level would be bullish for the Index. With the current trend direction a further decline below the 109.47 level would show the sellers remain in control with target towards the 107 level.

WTI – CRUDE OIL, Price structure:  Full Bull Market remains-just.

This commodity is highly news driven around supply -demand.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

The RSI running below the 50 is a result of strong price declines as upward momentum slows, recent price reversal has resulted in a sharp movement over the key level of 50 signalling increasing positive price momentum. This current move lower is indicating the loss of positive momentum. Developing Consolidation with a mixture of advance and declines sets the RSI up to move around the 50 level.

Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets

Comments from Last week: The $84.25 level has held support; however, the last 2 bars of price structure appear to be a developing bearish flag. A further movement close below this important level of $84.25 would confirm a move lower underway. Support remains at $75.20, a further break of this level may lead to a momentum move lower. To see a bullish development in this current price structure a close over $94.0 is required..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Black and White Technical Report 07/11/2022, FP Markets
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    FP Markets

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