April 15th 2021: 91.60 Daily Support Makes an Entrance on the US Dollar Index

April 15th 2021: 91.60 Daily Support Makes an Entrance on the US Dollar Index, FP Markets

Charts provided by Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

March carved out a third consecutive loss, extending the 2021 retracement slide by 2.8 percent. Recent underperformance, as you can see, pulled EUR/USD into the upper range of demand at 1.1857-1.1352.

April’s 2.8 percent rebound from the aforesaid demand thus far shifts attention to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641). Extending lower, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Dollar action navigated to three-week troughs on Wednesday. Interestingly, though, the US dollar index (ticker: DXY) shook hands with 91.60 support.

EUR/USD, following Tuesday’s one-sided advance north of the 200-day simple moving average (currently circling 1.1896), crossed swords with resistance at 1.1966 Wednesday. Follow-through upside here shines the technical spotlight on resistance at 1.2058.

Despite the 2021 retracement slide, trend studies reveal the pair has been higher since early 2020.

RSI analysis has the value hovering within striking distance of resistance at 60.30. This follows a trendline resistance breach last week (taken from the peak 75.97) as well as a bullish failure swing.

H4 timeframe:

Quasimodo resistance at 1.1937 stepped aside in recent trading (now potential support) and unlocked upside towards resistance at 1.1990. Upstream, interesting supply resides at 1.2101-1.2059 (sits on top of daily resistance at 1.2058).

H1 timeframe:

Supply from 1.1956-1.1935 had its upper side penetrated on Wednesday, with subsequent movement retesting the zone as demand and holding. 1.20 is seen as potential resistance on the H1 chart, with additional bullish flow targeting resistance at 1.2026 (previous Quasimodo support).

Modest RSI bearish divergence materialised around overbought space. The value currently circles the 60.00 region.

Observed levels:

The 1.20 figure based on the H1 and H4 resistance from 1.1990 forms potential confluence to be mindful of.

A H1 close north of 1.20, however, unbolts a possible bullish scenario, targeting H1 resistance at 1.2026, followed by H4 supply at 1.2101-1.2059 and daily resistance at 1.2058.

April 15th 2021: 91.60 Daily Support Makes an Entrance on the US Dollar Index, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s interesting was February also came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776 high), sheltered under supply from 0.8303-0.8082.

March subsequently erased 1.5% over the Month and probed February’s lows. Follow-through selling shines light on demand at 0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply).

With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

The Australian dollar outperformed against a broadly softer US dollar on Wednesday, adding more than 1 percent on the session and concluding at tops. Following a period of indecision around the 0.7563 February low, aided by a 1.272% Fib extension at 0.7545, recent enthusiasm elbowed resistance into the spotlight at 0.7817.

Trend studies reveal the unit has been higher since early 2020.

Momentum, as measured by the RSI oscillator, climbed the 50.00 centreline after discovering a floor off channel support, taken from the low 43.70.

H4 timeframe:

Trendline resistance, extended from the high 0.8007, as well as supply at 0.7696-0.7715, came under fire yesterday. Quasimodo resistance at 0.7800, therefore, deserves notice as the next potential ceiling, closely stationed by demand-turned supply from 0.7848-0.7867.

H1 timeframe:

Supply at 0.7747-0.7734 made an entrance amid US hours on Wednesday, following a decisive advance through 0.77 offers. Price action traders will note this movement established a demand area at 0.7679-0.7695

North of 0.7747-0.7734, the path appears relatively clear to 0.78.

Resistance at 80.85, plotted within overbought space on the RSI oscillator, welcomed the value as price tested supply. As you can see, noted resistance has so far held form, with the value on course to potentially exit overbought territory (considered a bearish signal).

Observed levels:

Scope to advance on the daily timeframe until resistance at 0.7817 places a question mark on H1 supply at 0.7747-0.7734. This, coupled with H4 action overthrowing supply at 0.7696-0.7715, highlights a bullish market for the time being.

A retest of the H4 supply-turned demand at 0.7696-0.7715 may entice dip-buyers, particularly if H1 greets 0.77.

April 15th 2021: 91.60 Daily Support Makes an Entrance on the US Dollar Index, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

April, currently down 1.6 percent, is seen retesting the breached descending resistance, movement that may eventually entice bullish flow. With respect to long-term upside targets, supply at 126.10-122.66 calls for attention.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

The greenback eked out modest losses against the Japanese yen Wednesday, consequently extending downside for a third consecutive session.

Despite supply at 110.94-110.29 limiting upside since the beginning of April, the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned support questions further selling. Consequently, the collection of lows around 108.36ish (green oval) could limit downside moves.

Structure beyond said lows, however, shows demand coming in at 107.58-106.85 alongside trendline support, etched from the low 102.59.

In terms of trend on the daily scale, we have been decisively higher since early 2021.

RSI action journeyed beneath support at 57.00, and recently dipped a toe under the 50.00 centreline. This implies momentum remains to the downside for the time being.

H4 timeframe:

As noted in previous writing, supply at 109.97-109.72 stood firm in early trade this week. Thanks to continued weakness, this brings light to a Fib cluster between 108.44 and 108.66 (blue), glued to the upper side of demand at 108.31-108.50 (note the area also holds lows highlighted on the daily scale around 108.36).

H1 timeframe:

Early hours on Wednesday dropped through 109 support and pencilled in lows a few pips ahead of demand at 108.60-108.71 (shares a connection with the H4 Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66). Subsequent action observed a 109 retest, which held as resistance.

RSI movement rebounded from oversold space, following the formation of an AB=CD pattern (black arrows). This led the value back to the 50.00 centreline, which formed resistance and informed traders that momentum faces southbound.

Observed levels:

Partly modified from previous analysis.

Having noted the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned possible support, any selling may be short-lived. As such, overtaking lows around 108.36 on the daily scale, according to chart studies, is unlikely.

In light of where we’re coming from on the monthly timeframe, H1 demand at 108.60-108.71 is likely on the radar for traders, an area plotted just north of H4 demand at 108.31-108.50 (and shares space with the H4 Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66).

April 15th 2021: 91.60 Daily Support Makes an Entrance on the US Dollar Index, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161).

February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. Contained within February’s range, however, March snapped a five-month winning streak and formed what candlestick enthusiasts call an inside candle pattern (represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility). A breakout lower in subsequent months would generally be viewed as a bearish signal.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged from previous analysis.

Sterling against the US dollar gathered traction Wednesday, though ended the session considerably off session peaks.

The technical arrangement present on the daily chart remains unchanged. Quasimodo support at 1.3609 is seen, a level connected with a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3617, as well as 1.618% and 1.272% Fib extension levels at 1.3614 and 1.3607, respectively.

With reference to trend, GBP/USD has been trending higher since early 2020.

The RSI failed to find grip north of the 50.00 centreline last week, though at the same time is reluctant to explore levels south of 40.00.

H4 timeframe:

Largely unchanged from previous analysis.

Action out of the H4 chart remains focussed on support at 1.3680, as well as trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.3670.

Additional areas to be cognisant of are 1.3852 resistance and Quasimodo support mentioned above on the daily timeframe at 1.3609.

H1 timeframe:

The 1.38 figure, surrounded by a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3809 and a 50.0% retracement level at 1.3793, delivered resistance on Wednesday and guided the currency pair back to 1.3750 support.

External levels to be aware of on the H1 scale are the 100-period simple moving average at 1.3740, and a demand-turned supply base residing at 1.3853-1.3869, sharing chart space with a number of Fib studies between 1.3870 and 1.3847.

Interestingly, RSI flow greeted trendline support, taken from the low 27.58, following an earlier rejection from overbought terrain.

Observed levels:

With higher timeframe levels showing limited support and resistance nearby, GBP/USD traders are likely monitoring 1.3750 support on the H1, along with 1.3809-1.3793 resistance.

Another area likely on the technical radar is H1 supply at 1.3853-1.3869. Not only does this base align with numerous Fib levels, the area also joins H4 resistance at 1.3852.

April 15th 2021: 91.60 Daily Support Makes an Entrance on the US Dollar Index, FP Markets

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  • April 15th 2021: 91.60 Daily Support Makes an Entrance on the US Dollar Index, FP Markets
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