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Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

XJO WEEKLY  Price structure: Impulsive

With a clear break away from the 6930 level, the 7200 level remains as resistance this week.

The very strong range can be indicative for further gains. With a strong price movement from the 6400 low area this current movement higher is regarded as corrective. Resistance at 7200 is regarded as significant, a decline from this level must find early support to indicate a new UP trend may be developing.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

Relative strength has closed above the 50 level as part of the overall change in momentum. Price momentum has turned significantly to the upside indicated by the rising RSI, a further  movement over the key 50 level would be very bullish.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week: The Weekly closing price has remained below the 6930-level following the price support level of 6620 remaining intact. The next level of resistance at 7200 remains the target in this current movement higher. Price reaching this level would indicate a breakout of the current down trend.

XJO DAILY  Price structure: Coming out of a base.

The impulsive movement last Friday closing above the Daily resistance level of 7130 is an important development for the bullish case to retest the 7437 resistance level being the initial breakdown level during May 2022. Not shown, the Index has now regained the 200 day moving average an important level for buyer to monitor.

Indicator:  Relative strength 14:

The Relative strength Indicator (14) reflecting the underlying price momentum has moved higher over the 50-level indicating a change in momentum. Relative strength is moving in sync with the daily action of the market and does offer a trading signal as momentum is currently shifting to the upside.  Early momentum failure would be indicated with a closing price below the 7130 level.

Indicator:  VOLUME:

Friday high volume bar was developed on a large advancement  bar indicating conviction for further buying. High volume over 1Bil indicates fresh money flow and remains very supportive for further gains.

Only DAILY volumes over 1Bil on a Daily basis would indicate strong new money buying.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  The midweek breakout to 7010 set a pivot reversal last Thursday as price retested the trendline with the lower shadow testing the up-trend line. A very supportive pattern for further gains. A closing price below the 6800 level would indicate a breakdown in this current structure.

S&P 500 WEEKLY Price structure:

The S&P 500 remains with a Primary down trend, the current successful retest of the 3715 support level is an important confirmation for the buyers with this week closing over the OPd high. The current past 4 week remains a retracement inside the current down trend. Last weeks strong range low to high suggest further gains for the coming week, to remain bullish a close over the 4050 level is required.

Indicator:  Relative strength Indicator 14.

Relative strength has set a new higher low and currently moving over the key 50 level indicating positive momentum. To remain bullish the RSI should remain over the 50 level during this current price advance.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week: The reading below the 50 level, last week the indicator turned higher, indicating a continuing change in momentum, this week may ultimately continue the momentum move higher. A continuing movement towards and over the 50 level would be a very strong short term bullish signal. Positive momentum requires a reading above the key level of 50 to give a momentum buy signal.

S&P 500 DAILY Price structure:  Confirmed bullish structure.

The higher low indicated last week has played out with a strong price gain over the 3940 level, this remains very bullish for further gains, with the next significant daily target shown at 4200.

The 200-day moving average may provide some resistance in the coming days and should be monitored for a closing price above the indicator level.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

Relative strength has turned higher and moving over the 50 level, a very strong indication of immediate improving momentum.

Further price weakness for this index will see the RSI move lower below the key 50 level.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week The Daily view indicates a Gap open buy signal from last Thursday followed through with a higher close into Friday. The 3940 level still poses significant resistance with support at 3650. The trading range between 3600 support and 4300 resistance remains intact.

NASDAQ DAILY Price structure:  Base building

The last OPd has confirmed the trendline, current price gaps up from this low area are breakaway gaps and should be regarded as bullish for further gains. The next significant price target remains the “gap” at 12400. Current daily price trend is UP.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

The Relative strength indicator moving back below the 50 level in line with the current price decline back to the trendline.

With a strong divergence signal in the recent background a continuing move higher could be expected.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  The current price decline back to the trendline may offer some support indicated by the OPd (outside period down close) as an indication of a developing swing point. A further price movement over the recent 11680 high point would place the NDX into an uptrend with further gains expected. The GAP opening at 12420 remains the prime price target.

USD Spot GOLD – DAILY:  Is it a Bull market?  Yes

With the current very strong breakout movement taking shape following the 3 spike low pattern the next target remains the $1804 resistance level as price clears the $1740 level. By definition Gold is yet to set a Primary up trend with the current movement being a “corrective” move against the Primary down trend.

Indicator: Relative Strength 14:

The RSI moving above the 50 level and rising sharply indicates a strong swing in momentum direction. A positive observation going forward is the RSI remaining above the 50 level.

(Price consolidation would naturally see the RSI drift back too around the 50 level. A strong movement either way will show the next directional move.)

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  The USD Gold price has set a SIGNIFICANT bas pattern with 3 spike low points with the completion of the final bar also setting pivot point reversal signal and given the range of the bar an impulsive price move is noted. This is an important development for a potential new trend developing, a continuing movement over the $1740 level will confirm this outcome.

SILVER DAILY  Price structure:  Bull market? – Almost.

Silver has been the early mover from two months ago setting the “higher low” the current follow through higher is losing momentum as the market sets a higher high with an indecision bar with the open/ close almost equal. An important retest of the $20.80 level is probable as the current up trend develops, support at this level would be very bullish for further gains over the next few trading weeks into the xmas period.

Relative strength 14:

Current Relative strength is rising sharply with the current movement ticking higher towards the 70-level, RSI turning higher again would reflect the underlying momentum again increasing and remaining positive.

A continuing move above the 70 level and higher would be very bullish signal in the short term. Price consolidation results in the relative strength turning back towards the 50 level.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from last week:

The Daily chart of Silver also indicates the 3 point lows as the precursor to the current breakout. A further movement over the recent high of $21.50 will confirm a primary up trend is developing. Last Friday also set an impulsive move and sets the reversal pivot point, a very good setup for further gains. A close below the $19.60 level will negate the bullish view with the potential for further consolidation.

AUD GOLD DAILY  Price structure:  Consolidation remains

Price resistance again at the $2676 level, not a great signal for further immediate gains. Australian gold producers may see some price weakness in the coming week.

The AUDXAU price remains within a large consolidation zone below $2712 and above $2477. Further price gains over the resistance level would send a very bullish signal to local producers and offer further price gains for the trader.

Indicator Relative strength 14:

Relative strength has turned higher from below the 50 level. Overall, momentum has now turned Bullish. A continued movement above the 50 level would be a strong positive for further price gains.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:

The higher low support set at $2537 is highlighted with a OPu (outside period up close)

Swing point confirming as a pivot point, set the stage for a retest of the 2676 level in the coming days. This will have a direct positive influence on the Australian Gold producers. The explorers remain subject to news announcements and may not react to the immediate  Gold price movements.

DAILY COPPER  Price structure: Potential breakout.

Copper has set a classic 3 spike low pattern confirmed this week with the strong breakout above the $3.80 level. Current price movements indicate a test of the $4.00 resistance level is underway. This will remain a strong positive for local copper players OZL and S32.

A further break over the $4.0leve could be expected as an extension to the current strong low to high impulsive price range.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

Current reading has swung from below the 30-level to again turn higher as downward momentum has stopped , however the current reading must remain above the key 50 level. The key now, is for the RSI to swung back above the 70 level as a reflection of ongoing price gains.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  Over the past 5 months of consolidation the underlying trendline has remained intact as the base continued to build. The earlier Gap open buy signal has followed through into the current impulsive price movement. A further close over the $3.80 level will set the underlying primary trend to UP.
Current reading has swung from below the 30-level to again turn sideways to higher as downward momentum has slowed, however the current reading remains below the key 50 level (just). The key now, is for the RSI to swung back above the 50 level as a reflection of ongoing price gains.

AUSTRALIAN VOLATILITY INDEX:

Volatility reading has moved slightly higher from last week and remains above the 13 level indicating forward pricing of PUT options remains strong. In general, lower to consolidating commodities prices and equity prices or consolidation of equity prices is indicated as the reading remains above the 13 level.

For continued support of equities, the XVI should move below the “13” level.

The cost of 3month forward PUT options is decreasing from recent elevated levels.

The XVI is the difference between 3-month forward pricing of ETO Options against current month.

As markets anticipate events, the forward priced option volatility changes, hence as forward price changes, this “skew” in pricing is measured in this XVI. The XVI value works as an inverse observation to the underlying market.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

USD DOLLAR INDEX Price structure:  Setting a lower low

From the current OPd and last Fridays impulsive price movement, the DXUY has now further confirmed a Primary down trend is underway. The current movement can be regarded as a capitulation move lower. Strong price momentum may not find support at the highlighted levels, however the significant support level of 104 remains.

Indicator:  Relative strength 14:

The Relative strength has turned lower in line with price movements indicating further consolidation as the current reading is now below the 30 level.

This will move lower to sideways should price decline, only a continued reading back above 30 and then the 50 level would indicate a change price momentum.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week:  The USD Index has also completed an important top pattern with the 3 spike high points and in this case has also set a Lower high with the completion of the Pivot point last Friday the low testing the 110.75 level. Further confirmation will occur with price moving to 109.47 and below.

WTI – CRUDE OIL, Price structure:  Full Bull Market remains-just.

This commodity is highly news driven around supply -demand.

Price consolidation continues between the $84.254 and $94.0 level. A close over the $94.0 level would be a bullish signal indicating buyers. A close below this accumulation area would send a very bearish signal with the potential to retest the $75.20 level.

Indicator: Relative strength 14:

The RSI running around the 50 level is a result of consolidation as upward momentum slows, recent price reversal has resulted in a sharp movement over the key level of 50 signalling increasing positive price momentum. This current move lower is indicating the loss of positive momentum. Developing Consolidation with a mixture of advance and declines sets the RSI up to continue a move around the 50 level.

Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets

Comments from Last week: The $84.25 level has held support; however, the last 2 bars of price structure appear to be a developing bearish flag. A further movement close below this important level of $84.25 would confirm a move lower underway. Support remains at $75.20, a further break of this level may lead to a momentum move lower. To see a bullish development in this current price structure a close over $94.0 is required..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Black and White Technical Report Week Ending 18/11/2022 | FP Markets, FP Markets
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