The Shifting Sand of Brexit: movements of the past 7 days

The Shifting Sand of Brexit: movements of the past 7 days

So, the only thing ‘dead in a ditch’ today is the PMs October 31 Brexit deadline. Halloween might be the celebration of the dead, Brexit, however, is the Teflon-coated beast that never dies; least of all on Halloween.

 

So around we go again in the Brexit merry-go-round as the UK heads for it’s for fourth ‘vote’ in 3.5 years having seen a referendum and three general elections in that time (including the one now due on December 12).

 

Below is the latest average of all polls in the UK from the FT. It is understandable why Boris Johnson believes a general election is his best option to finally put Brexit to rest as a new Parliament with a possible majority would get everything ‘done’ as he wants it. 

Source: FT

 

However, if there is one thing that is certain in Brexit – nothing is ‘done’ until it is dead and buried.

 

Brexit: Where we are this week

 

  • EU agrees to extend Brexit to January 31 - this highlights perfectly its ‘neutrality.’ Paris was muscling for a shorter date extension, but it’s clear the EU wants to come out of the whole Brexit fiasco as ‘neutral’ as neutral gets so it can hang the Brexit millstone on Westminster.

However, a further delay request past January 31 appears unlikely, after Donald Tusk warned that the UK would be unlikely to get any further delays from the EU. This has been said before, and it would be an interesting scenario if a Labour-led rainbow coalition was to form that may want to explore remaining in the EU. Whatever the outcome from the elections, the outgoing president of the European Council is urging the UK not to waste this final offering.

 

  • For the first time in months, Johnson won a vote in the House as Jeremy Corbyn finally changed his mind and allowed the Labour party to pass the general election bill.

 

The vote was not without its slight ‘off-centre’ shenanigans as several ‘amendments’ were put forward; one was for lowering the voting age to encompass 16 and 17-year-olds. Another had an amendment that wanted the election include all EU nationals. Neither had a chance of getting up, however, the risk was enough to see No 10 threaten to pull the bill altogether if the amendments passed. Highlights how ‘moody’ this scenario is.

 

With the UK off to the polls on 12 December, this will be the first pre-Christmas vote since 1923. How polls suggest the final makeup of House will be formed will be the biggest driver of the GBP over the coming 6 weeks – Big currency drive and one to have a very big eye on.

 

  • The olive branch was also handed out to 10 of the 21 Tory MPs who were thrown out last month. The party stressed that the fact the other 11 had not been restored did not mean they would not in the coming days or weeks. This is a clear step towards soring-up its base and its position on the floor.

 

What is clear from the ‘policy’ being laid out in the 24 hours since the bill passed, is the rhetoric of the election campaign will be one of the nastiest and bitter campaigns in living memory.


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