Aussie Rises, Stocks Fall After Mixed Jobs Numbers 17/10/19

Aussie Rises, Stocks Fall After Mixed Jobs Numbers 17/10/19

Australian stocks declined while the Aussie rose after the country released jobs numbers for September. The numbers showed that the unemployment rate declined slightly to 5.2% from the previous 5.3%. Employment change in the month increased by 26.2k, which was lower than the expected 15.3k. Full-time employment increased by 9,000 people while part-time employment increased by 11,300 people. Hours worked increased slightly by 0.1% in September and by 1.8% over the past year. Meanwhile, the participation rate declined slightly to 66.1% from the previous 66.2%. These numbers came a few days after the RBA released its minutes for the previous meeting. The minutes showed that members were upbeat about the economy and impacts of rate cuts made this year.

AUS200. The AUS200 index declined by 70 basis points today after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released employment data for September. On the hourly chart, the index declined from a high of A$6760 to a low of A$6693.77. The 14-day and 28-day exponential moving averages have made a bearish crossover while the average directional index has been moving higher. The pair may continue moving lower to test the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of A$6638.70.

Singapore dollar. The Singapore dollar rose today after the Singapore Department of Statistics released trade numbers for September. Data showed that the country’s exports declined for the seventh consecutive month. Exports declined by 8.1% YoY, which was lower than the consensus estimates of 7%. This was a slight improvement on the 9% drop experienced in August. Shipments of electronics dropped by a quarter while non-electronics declined by 2.3%. Exports to the European Union dropped by 17.3% while those to China rose by 20.8%. Total trade in the country declined by 4.9% in September.

USD/SGD. The USD/SGD continued moving lower after Singapore released its trade numbers. As of this writing, the pair is trading at 1.3683, which is close to the lowest level since August this year. The pair has been moving lower after reaching a YTD high of 1.3940. On the four-hour chart below, the pair is trading below the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. The RSI has moved slightly higher while the average true range has fallen. Today, the pair may attempt to test the previous support of 1.3675.

British Pound. Sterling remained at multi-month highs as the market waited for progress on Brexit. Boris Johnson has been trying to sell his deal to DUP and Eurosceptic Members of Parliament. The deal will introduce customs check between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This type of deal was rejected by Theresa May, who said that no British Prime Minister would accept such a deal. The outcome of Johnson’s outreach to Parliament will likely come out today. Later today, the market will receive retail sales data from the UK. These numbers are expected to show that retail sales rose by 3.2% while core retail sales are expected to have risen by 2.8%. This is from the previous 2.7% and 2.2% respectively.

GBP/USD. The GBP/USD pair was in a holding pattern as the market waited for information on Brexit. As of this writing, the pair is trading at 1.2818, which is slightly below this week’s high of 1.2185. On the four-hour chart, the pair is above all the short, medium, and long-term moving averages. The RSI has remained above the overbought level of 70. The histogram and signal line of the MACD have remained at the highest levels in a month. The pair may experience some volatility today as the market receives more news on Brexit.


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