The Shifting Sand of Brexit: movements of the past 7 days

The Shifting Sand of Brexit: movements of the past 7 days

With UK Parliament now suspended for 5 weeks, the final sitting day has left us with more questions than answers as the divide between the Prime Minister, the Parliament and his own party appears to be widening by the day as this throws up policy rejections, resignations and a complete lack of policy cohesion.


Brexit: Where are we this week

  • Prorogation aka a shutdown of Parliament has now begun. The House now won’t reconvene until October 14. As ‘drastic’ as this sounds a suspension of parliament usually takes place at this time of year. But this one is abnormal in its length (the longest prorogation since 1930) and due to the state of UK politics and its dealings with Brexit.
    Furthermore, the EU Council summit will be held three days after Parliament reconvenes on October 17, this is likely to be the last real chance for UK policymakers to negotiate with Brussel as two weeks from here is the current proposed Brexit departure date of October 31.
  • The list of orders that passed the Parliament this week is vast and saw lawmakers: seizing control of parliamentary dealings, voting to block a no-deal/hard Brexit, rejected the PM’s bid to bring about a snap election, not once but twice (something he believes would strengthen his hand to force through Brexit) and then forced the PM to ask for a further delay to the UK’s departure from the EU by law. Something he has stated he ‘would rather die in a ditch’ over.
  • Key resignations included Amber Rudd the Work and Pensions Minister and former Home Secretary a key member of the One Nation group as well as Jo Johnson the PM’s own brother and strong Europhile. This goes with the 21 Conservative MP known as the ‘rebels’ that voted against the Government on some of the above issues that were then sacked and expelled from the Party, seeing the PM’s one-seat majority disappear into the ether.
  • Also, of note: John Bercow the House Speaker announced he will step down from the post on October 31. The veracious Speaker was described as the ‘backbenchers backstep’ as he allowed the Parliament to challenge the Governments position on Brexit and other major issues.
    His departure could see debate moving in another direction or could even see it be stifled if the new Speaker falls down Party affiliation or Remain/Leave lines. The current crop of candidates is diverse; the biggest players are seen as Sir Lindsey Hoyle, Eleanor Laing, Harriet Harman, Meg Hiller, and Chris Bryant and all come with their own sets of baggage and most are Remainers.

All this news has been seen by the markets move as follows over the past 7 days.

GBPUSD
EURGBP
FTSE100

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